Well again SPX stayed below 1.228 which I am looking closely at which is 61.8% fib retracement from march lows and top 2007. Lets see monday tomorrow if we will break above this , because if we do so, most technical indicators are showing that we are in a bull market now and bear market is done. I just dont believe this rally still cause there are so many signs that its fake, both with volume, insider sales, only dollar driven and COT very bearish.
The dollar flushed down 1 day below support but managed friday to move above the trendline - the best thing would be if the bottom is in for the dollar. Only 2% bulls in dollar now and the crowd on the short side in the dollar is heavy. So why did the dollar loose the big weekly support for 1 day ? Well - cause most of the times they will take the "stops" out before they are moving the opposite direction. And they did it great, so stops got taken out and the bounce on friday made us above the trendline again. Lets see I think the dollar is ready now to rally - when most think we are in a bull market now and when we did not sell off after QE2 everyone seems safe to go long markets now. I am short and stucked a bit here I must admit, but my plan is to hold my shorts cause when the pops , it can go fast down again. The NASI gave us a sell signal which indicates too that over the next 1-3 weeks we should head down.
On the http://ise.com/WebForm/md_livevol.aspx?categoryId=124&header2=true&menu1=true&symbol=TZA - TZA got some very bullish put/call ratio which indicates that someone think that small caps are going down hard soon and TZA up a lot near future.
The NASI is still on sell signal and as long it dosent give a bull signal with a bullish cross this week we should be heading down over next weeks. So this week is very important for the bears to hold.
Time will tell - have a great weekend!
S&P $1250 coming. If you followed this guy instead of the one you take those charts from, you would have made a lot of money since October. http://www.youtube.com/user/oldschoolchartist 2 more years of bull market. No market collapse coming. Gloom & doom is a voodoo.
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ReplyDeleteI agree with you.
Sqwii used to be a good trader, but he is completely lost this time. He should cut loss now before losing everything.
"Smart money" is long, stupid money is short.
We just hope you can minimize your loss.
Bulls climb a wall of bears. Now, finally dumb money is coming into the market. Low volume was mostly the big guys. All those bears thought big boys aka MMs weren't buying. It was the opposite. If the market pulls back 3% or so, it may be a good time to cover at least half the shorts or inverse ETFs. TZA may hit $15 early next year.
ReplyDeleteI am new to stock market, and I was actually following you and Ron Walker for a while, and lost 10% on TZA because I had it as a position trade. Luckily I responded quickly enough, and cut loss on Sep 27.
ReplyDeleteCutting loss is a big rule for trader.
I stayed on the bear side a little too long and lost some money. It must be painful to just watch the market keeps going up and TZA & other inverse ETFs keep going down. You got to be flexible. Inverse head & shoulder was completed on 9/20/10. That signaled this run to S&P 1240-1250. Looking at the chart, it's obvious. Good learning experience it was for me too. Pullback will be small and this bull market will continue for 2 more years. TZA may never see above $23 until this bull market ends.
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