As expected markets continue drifting higher with easy FED money and also a combination with dumb money really confident in moving into markets. Dumb money is long 71% now and the smart money has reduced to 21% lately which is extreme bearish from a historical point of view.
I believe that the correction is right around the corner and may very well start today - we are in mid February and the time zone for a reversal as I have been expecting should start now. But remember again - as long as the markets continue to drift higher there is no signs yet that we should get a correction and until then the market trend is up. Thats why sometimes we just need to trade what there is to trade right now and here and sometimes not try to predict where markets "should" go. Overall I feel quite confident that we get a decline very soon, if its about US debt or Spain yieds rising or what - I dont know, but all of my charts are touching the upper trendline in a huge bearish rising wedge pattern where its most likely a big slash down is comming to surprise most.
Russels is in a very bearish broadening top formation where it could plunge from 827 trendline. Thats around here and the RSI(14) on markets is above 70 very overbought and every indicator , sentiment points to a drop. But again - does it matter ? Cause we have seen this over past months where the markets kept grindning higher. THIS is WHY we wait for CONFIRMATION of a breakdown before going in lots of shorts, but at least you can add a few up here if you believe in a correction. But I want confirmation as I have been burned lots of money on NON confirmation..sad but true.
So the confirmation to add lots of shorts is SPX below 1318-1319 area , BELOW this level then get as much shorts you can and above , just keep your positions light.
Have a nice day
Amazing. Have not looked at this blog for a few months. Came back to see whether Sqwii is still "confused", and sure he is.
ReplyDeleteI'm sorry but you've been singing the same tune for 5 months now. It doesn't matter whether the reader is looking at your October posts or February posts. It's like a long Brazilian movie, where nothing changes from the 1st to 150th episode. I'll sum it up:
"Market is right near correction. All charts are pointing to a big splash down. I'm very confident it'll happen any day. BUT, market can also continue going up, so I'm just writing here to say that I'm so good at predicting, so here is my prediction: market can go up or it can go down, and I'll be back the next day to say I told you so :)))). But overall, the market is near huge correction, but I don't know it can still go up, but it's still very near correction, but it might still go up, who knows, I don't know what I'm saying anymore, but I'm confident it'll correct so soon. Oh yeah, did I mention - it may still go up?"
Let's see if my post gets deleted. Good luck!
well i guess the commenter above will be 'buying the dip'. Overall the market will go down and Ill be selling every rally.
ReplyDelete