Market view

Markets did a move down to 1295-1300 level exactly my first target to the downside 1 week ago - when we were trading at near 1350.

I really was not sure if we would meet 1295-1300 on Friday last week as we just might move up from there , but we did and tested the area which I think is a short term bottom.

Markets ended with a red hammer bottom reversal candle yesterday on indexes , which favours that the bottom is in.

I believe you should buy this dip - as long 1295 holds it should be an excellent buy..... all IMO.

I see it as a kind og "cup and handle" pattern - where we have made the handle over the last weeks down to support shown on chart.

If this is true we are about to see a nice rally - actually above the recent highs in 1350's , but my first target to the upside is 1345 though.

Just looking at small caps TNA / IWM / RUT - it might also be indicated as a right sholder formed in an inverted HS pattern - but who knows , not sure if it plays out - I dont think so - but if true upside is above 1400 on SPX......

I bought a big size position in TNA yesterday at 79.35 and holding for a swing play - I think it will do very over next weeks from here.

Sentiment right now felt very bearish yesterday as we moved below 1300 - seemed like no on really dared to buy - but lets see what happends from here.

I would expect a breakout of the fallign wedge down lately , then a retest of the trendline break and then a move higher possible end of this week or next week.

Conclusion:

I think you should buy the dips - then as long 1295 holds should be fine on SPX imo - I think we will see a rally from this level to 1345 my first upside target.

In size with TNA this time 79.35 - lets see how it plays out

Have a nice day

Intraday update

We are right now about to backtest the horizontal resistance which we broke out of in this area 1295-1300 area - you remember the recent big rally we had ? Now we dropped down to this level which should act as support before next rally up......stay tuned

Remember as I've told lots of people 1 week ago , 1295-1300 was first target and we are right here in this area now.... time to load up IMO

Loaded TNA today a big size position for swing 79.35$.... holding all

Market view

Markets did a gap up on Friday and were moving sideways and choppy up and down , seems like its consolidating to me before a bigger move to come....

The thing is which I have indicated 1 week ago , that I was expecting a short term bottom to be in late this week (thursday/friday) , I still stand by my call and I think we may have seen the short term bottom right above 1300 ( remember 1300 were my first target - if this was holding we should move up , if it was not holding - we should go down hard..)

I dont think markets is ready yet to fall down hard - seems like we are going to get another push higher near term. So I rest of my shorts of the table in TZA , just in small profits nothing big - and went into TNA for a starter swing trade at 81.5$ on Friday. I think I'm going to add if we gap down next week to 1295-1300 level , as long this level holds , longs should be fine imho.

Again - I might be too early on my call for a bottom in markets - as I have NOT got any buy signals yet in markets.... If markets green monday I will most likely get those buy signals - but I cant say right now that I got buy signals on daily charts..

I just see a very potential backtest of the broken trendline we had on the big rally in June , then pullback to backtest it over the lsat weeks from 1350 -> 1300 level and then possible new rally to come above 1350 again ? I'm frankly not quite sure how high we go right now , if its only a rally to 1330 or we move up to around recent highs 1370's....

But I think its better to buy the dip right now if we get some near term at 1295-1300 for a short term rally. Next week I could expect some choppiness up and down - but I would give it an upside bias , also that I bought TNA.

I am short silver via ZSL - and hoping for a short term top in silver soon (as fear moves away....)

Again - no one makes 100% accurate calls out there but at least I try to post my trades and oppinion where this markets is going. If I get a buy signal in markets sometimes next week I will add to my long swing positions.

Have a nice weekend and enjoy !

Market view

Markets had a little rally first on the day , but then started to plunge all day long into close and closed down -0.7% and small caps some more. VIX increased above 20 and moved into the 20-30 zone where the fear is comming in.

I took TZA off the table on my swing trade yesterday as I saw that the markets could have a potential bottom in place very soon ( short term bottom ) - however I have NOT got any kind of SELL signal on my short ETF , they are all still on buy and I have still sell signal on indexes.

On my charts I showed you that markets did come back to a potential "backtest" of broken downtrendline , which is a "bullish" signal - and SPY also made a possible inverted HS pattern , which targets much higher from here - actually above 1400.

As I said before this week - I've had a "bottom cycle" date late this week (Thursday/Friday) so either way I think we are close to a short term bottom - why I think its good to take some profits off on shorts. But last time I were a bit too fast taking profits on TNA - now I am waiting for a SELL signal on my last position in TZA(holding 50% position).

My plan is now - when I get a sell signal on TZA I will jump in TNA for a swing position (as this one will give a buy signal then) but I will make an update on twitter if so.

I also took at swing position in ZSL (short silver) at 14.75$ as many things looked like a top in both gold and silver to me....

Sentiment as of yesterday is a bit bearish right now - so according so sentiment trader , markets should rally short term.

So right now markets is at some critical and major support trendlines and may go a bit lower to around 1300 or just above on a small gap down.

But as I told everyone I were looking for 1295-1300 and we are here now literally... 1306... close. If this is the bottom before next leg up , let it be - if not ... we go lower...

Conclusion: Plan is to sell rest of TZA 50% when I get a sell signal on daily chart so as long the trend is down and TZA is on buy signal I'm going to hold rest..... as long we go down....
But I have a fib date cycle for a bottom either it was in yesterday or sometimes today... so lets see I think a possible good buy or starter in TNA soon.

Just looking at TNA chart - lets see where I wanna buy....cause actually TNA backtested also trendline at 80.4 which would be a good buy , but daily chart still on SELL signal on TNA, but if we bounce on Friday I will get some and then get our of TZA.

Have a nice day and enjoy the weekend everyone

Market view

Markets did a nice rally early yesterday on so called QE3 news.... I expect we will get QE3 in the future - but we wont get it before 2. August until they increase the debt ceiling - so no worries that they will be doing this right now.

Markets did just loose nearly all the gains which were made on the day at the end of the day - and closed only up around 0.3%.

If my analysis is right , we should see really panic end of this week ( Thursday and Friday ) and not sure what will come to make us panic - but time will tell us.

VIX ended in the 20's and ready to run higher with all other short ETF's imo.

Markets been flat over the last 2 days literally , usually markets bounces or rallies from MA(50) but this is weak action and I think we plunge below MA(50) and then possible 1295-1300 next. If this level is taken out , then I think we move below MA(200).

Not much to say , patience patience :-) still holding all shorts and cash in hand - I still wanna see some real panic.

If we move lower near term - I would also get a bullish MACD divergence on 60 min chart which is a good signal that a bottom is near - so if we plunge over next few days , thats a time where you maybe wanna take some profits on the shorts - but again I am waiting out until I get a buy signal on markets + sell signals on all short ETF's.

Conclusion: Still holding all my shorts , 1st target is 1295-1300 on SPX - so if we dont break below this major support - then we will possible make a "higher low" before heading higher. If we break it over next days before weekend - then my target is below MA(200) and possible 1230 , so real panic will set in.

Watch those levels.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did have a boring day on Tuesday - literally quite flat , but then plunged down into close on Irish downgrade with their ratings cut to junk (Like we saw Greece before a possible deffault)

There are a few things I wanna share - cause the markets closed right below MA(50) which could be indicated as bearish - but on the other site , markets also right at a trendline which we broke out of on the recent rally we had , so is this a backtest before we are going higher in markets?

There is also a thesis that we are making some kind of inverted HS pattern with the right shoulder forming now at 1310 and above ( needs to hold 1310 then.... ) if thats right , upside from here could be a lot higher and above 1400 - but only if 1310 is going to hold.

My main count and thesis is just still that markets should go lower - with a lot more panic to come , with the VIX spiking a lot higher from here. European markets looks pretty ugly on daily charts and is a lot lower already than US - so I think US will pick up speed to the downside and begin accelerating again.

All my 3 x short ETF looks extreme bullish to me and looks like they are about to go big soon.

As I've said before , markets is ALWAYS stretching both bulls and bears to the maximum - we rallied more than I thought and I think this time we will plunge more than I think. My short term target for the plunge is 1295-1300 , but if this level gets taken out , I'm pretty sure we see 1230 next and some real panic....

My plan is to wait until I get a buy signal on markets and sell signal on all short ETF + sell signal on the dollar before I will get out of my TZA trade. If markets tells me to do so , I need to react to it as a bottom may be in then - if we gap up today I think it might be a great shorting opportunity , as I have a fib date cycle bottom late this week where I would love to see VIX in the 20-30 and possible above 30 with real panic to set in...

EU stress test on Friday + lots of other things to come.... there might be some kind of panic to set in.

UUP did a backtest of broken trendline 21.6 and ran into close - I think the dollar should run higher near term to 22.3 or so with this expecting markets to go lower.

Time will tell whats happening , but holding all my cash + TZA still.

Have a nice day

Market view

Fluuuush and we got a nice reversal bar on the daily charts - all my 3 x short ETF's got on buy signal on Friday and confirmed it in a big way on Monday with more fears about Italy and EU.

The euro plunged down as called 2 weeks ago with the dollar breaking out in a massive rally , which gave pressure on stock markets and commodities.... this was called last week way before it happended. I'm still thinking we will get some more panic this week and this is not done yet! I think we just started to see some real panic - the question for me is just - how low we will go before we make a short term bottom.

Actually there is a pretty good chance the topping HS pattern plays out and target is 1130-1150 level - by September or so. But until thne we will have many short term rallies comming up, which we also is going to play as we are going to maximize profits both up and down.

Right now I'm thinking the dollar has some more upside according to the chart and therefore markets should have more downside short term.

I expect VIX to see 20-30 by Tuesday or so with some panic beginning to set in markets. The question for me , are we going to make a "lower high" before going higher or are we going to take out the lows and flush below MA(200) ? My first thesis has always been we move lower and take out MA(50) first - then MA(200) later this week and possible make a short term bottom 1230's , I have a fib cycle date at Thursday/Friday for a market bottom , so time will tell - this time I'm just gonna ride markets down until charts and stuff gives me a buy signal again.

FXE is getting close to a major 2 year trendline support - and I bet you , if this one cracks down... we are going to flush down very hard in markets and it could be very ugly. But I still have my same thesis that we will see some more panic this week and later this week where a potential short term bottom should occur (When VIX is very high again......) thats when you wanna load up on longs and TNA again.

Until now sitting with all my cash + TZA and riding them up. For Tuesday I would expect more weakness and another Terrible tuesday below MA(50) , but time will tell us. Watch out for 1300 level and if this does not hold... then I think we see 1230. So my main plan is to see if 1300 is holding - if not I think 1230 is comming... this has been my main count all the time that we should take out 1250-1260 level and move lower this week. Give me some PANIC !

I'm going with familiy to an amusement park on Tuesday - so wont be here on twitter for today , but holding all my shorts and cash TZA 34.69$ swing size position.

Have a nice day and remember - you get all these for free everyday, really hope you enjoy it.