Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Market view
Markets did a move down to 1295-1300 level exactly my first target to the downside 1 week ago - when we were trading at near 1350.
I really was not sure if we would meet 1295-1300 on Friday last week as we just might move up from there , but we did and tested the area which I think is a short term bottom.
Markets ended with a red hammer bottom reversal candle yesterday on indexes , which favours that the bottom is in.
I believe you should buy this dip - as long 1295 holds it should be an excellent buy..... all IMO.
I see it as a kind og "cup and handle" pattern - where we have made the handle over the last weeks down to support shown on chart.
If this is true we are about to see a nice rally - actually above the recent highs in 1350's , but my first target to the upside is 1345 though.
Just looking at small caps TNA / IWM / RUT - it might also be indicated as a right sholder formed in an inverted HS pattern - but who knows , not sure if it plays out - I dont think so - but if true upside is above 1400 on SPX......
I bought a big size position in TNA yesterday at 79.35 and holding for a swing play - I think it will do very over next weeks from here.
Sentiment right now felt very bearish yesterday as we moved below 1300 - seemed like no on really dared to buy - but lets see what happends from here.
I would expect a breakout of the fallign wedge down lately , then a retest of the trendline break and then a move higher possible end of this week or next week.
Conclusion:
I think you should buy the dips - then as long 1295 holds should be fine on SPX imo - I think we will see a rally from this level to 1345 my first upside target.
In size with TNA this time 79.35 - lets see how it plays out
Have a nice day
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