Monday, January 23, 2012
Market view
Markets had one of the best intraday reversals I've seen over the past 30 days. So lets see if this is something important but all in all , all the charts i'm looking at pointing to this being a major major top for 2012 ,,, and even over the next few years.
I think this might be one of the best spots to short markets over next few years you will get.
1. Markets extremely overbought ,, RSI(14) at 70 ,, last times were before August drop 2011....
2. We have a daily chart very clear BEARISH divergence ,, all in place for a major drop
3. NYA and other indexes forming a very clear bearish topping head and shoulders pattern ,, this was a pattern we had summer 2011 which played out ,, this one is even bigger so this might even get more ugly.
4. Sentiment is at extreme bullishness right now ,, thats the RECIPE you want if you want the markets to sell off. If not many bullish by sentiment markets would not fall a lot ,, but with so many bullish/neutral markets can easy sell off hard.
5. VIX actually BOUNCED of the trendline from 2011 lows ,, so looking good from those levels and potential low in VIX for 2012.
Conclusion:
All in all ,, seems like today might be interesting day for bears finally as we got the best "sellers" intraday showing up. Also every charts points to a major top in and VIX major bottom , so a drop in markets very likely.
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Sqwii I believe the weekly & monthly $SPX rsi needs to cycle up to 60 line for backtest yet...we're not that far away, but 2 rsi pts on a monthly is probably at least 30 $SPX handles...in meantime, $SPX 60min fork is still in play, it's median once again acting as s/r http://screencast.com/t/plo3xrCboo
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540
ReplyDeleteWhy is extreme bullishness the perfect recipe for a sell off? Is it because most bulls (to be trapped) have bought in already...nobody left to buy the dips? Just trying to understand logic better thanks.
ReplyDeleteHow is sentiment during those multi-year bull markets like 2003 to 2007?
ReplyDeleteCorrection Underway + Gold Vix + UNG
ReplyDeletehttp://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/
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