Market view 19th Cycle date high

Markets had its cycle date high today at 19th ,, which starts a new major cycle where the optimism in mkts should have a peak today and therefore the fear should be low.

I like the fact that GOOG tanking big time afterhours ,, which fits with a potential reversal in markets tomorrow.

What is VERY interesting is:

1. SPY hit the trendline today from the top 2011 ,, perfect spot for reversal

2. DOW JONES futures hitting the trendline from 2007 top, 2011 top and now (I think 2012 top...)

So all in all , I remain all in shorts and ready for the fall ,, IMO we could start by tomorrow after the peek in optimism made today and some major trendline spots hits today.

SPX hit 1315 ,, MORE than I expected yes ,,, I really did not expect SPX to see 1315,, or even 1300 , I thought we would stop before ,, but again markets ALWAYS goes to the extremes.....

All major indexes now have RSI(14) right at 70 ,, which is extreme overbought on the daily charts,,,, those who go long here is wicked sick imo ,, the time to go long was in October .... and the time to go short is... now !

Watch for a potential reversal to the downside tomorrow (Friday) on OPEX day.

I'm looking for markets to take out October lows from this level here in 2012... if I'm wrong,, then Dow jones will take out the highs from 2011,, but so far so good.

Market view

Markets did gap lower/flat ,, and after this ran nicely higher and what is imo interesting is 2 things.

1. SPX hit the 78.6% fib retracement from the 2011 highs and 2011 lows ,, this is a very heavy resistance area so a reversal from those levels is possible.

2. Looking at the ES futures SPX ,, we hit the trendline from 2011 highs ,, again dow jones broke it and nadaq too,, so will SPX break it tomorrow ?? Time will tell

3. As mentioned before I've got a major cycle starting from 19th January( tomorrow ) this should be a "high" in my book , and I still believe markets is in the forming of a major high in 2012 ,, honestly markets has just been moving slowly higher and it hurts of course a bit being underwater, but again markets havent been moving a lot last weeks..

So all in all expecting a major top by tomorrow ( or its in today )

Remember dow jones is very close to the 2011 highs , I believe we are in a BEAR market and this is just a very fast and violent bear market rally ,, where we will after this go to new lows and test October lows from 2011.


Conclusion:

I'm going to have patience and hold ,, lets see how SPX reacts to the 1307 level but all in all ,, should be a top in especially by 19th ,, so will we gap up a little and then reverse down ? Time will tell. We have lots of techs earnings after thursday close and what I see on IBM and other techs some ugly charts forming ,, so careful on those.

The 19th I've got a new cycle which means that a MAJOR HIGH should be in by this,, after this date the pessimism in market should increase and optimism should then decrease (this means VIX will begin to go up in a new trend)and markets down. So question is do we gap up and make the optimism peek 19th or did we top out and begin to reverse from 19th? Time will tell.

VIX still hoovering at the bottom and I still believe VIX bottom is at those levels and will go way higher in 2012 ,, lets see if VIX can hold 20 tomorrow.

For those who still hold shorts ,, have patience ! I know its painful to hold when markets creeping higher , but again its not a loss until you sell it.

The weak hands will sell ,, but I'm still all in TVIX 26-27$ and TZA 27$ both underwater now,, holding all.

Patience and this will reward YOU imo :-)

Market view

What is VERY interesting about yesterday is:

1.First that the markets started with a gap up premarket 1.3% and ended near RED ,, so we had a major intraday reversal.

2. Markets came above 1300 for the first time for a long long time ,, potential a bull trap with retailers going long and feeling "safe" to go long?

3. AAII sentiment at 17% bears (all shorts covered now) and NYSE short interest at 7 years low,, this is crazy ,, its going to change very soon but I love it as it is one of the best scripts for another hard sell off coming...

4. NYA chart is VERY interesting ,, because yesterday was the FIRST TIME it tried to test the MA200 on the daily chart since the crash last summer ,,, we made a little test below it and then reversed to the downside... excellent spot for inflection point.

5. Remember the round numbers we had as I mentioned: SPX 1300 , NASDAQ 2400, DOW JONES 12.500 in all futures charts ,, will they hold ? Time will tell , but all in all I'm looking at this as a MAJOR top for 2012 and a great market decline is yet to come,, patience.

6. Financials clearly broke down hard as I called to short XLF and financials last week when XLF was 14$ , said to short JPM and Citigroup and BAC all down a lot since then ,, and imo much more downside to come.

Conclusion:

All in all ,, yesterday looks very much like a reversal day to the downside ,, time will tell but it smells like a bull trap just above 1300 ,, I stay extreme heavy short markets currently and holding all TVIX/TZA , both underwater a little bit but remember , those ones moves FAST when they go up ,, so patience will be the key to your profit $$$$$$$$$

Have a nice day

Market view SPX 1300, DOW 12.500 , NDX 2400

Markets right now in premarket gapping up 0.8%-1%.

SPX at 1300 futures
Dow jones near 12.500
Nasdaq naer 2.400

All indexes right now in the futures at some round numbers and levels ,, markets had 10 x downgrades and with Greece having major problems and could see a deffault soon,, you see a PERFECT example how manipulated markets is and how the banksters can run the futures higher.

All in all ,, it seems to me like the banksters wants to test those round levels or the SPX 1307 fib retracement from 2011 highs to 2011 before pulling the plug.

For me - I stay all in shorts and going to hold through the short term pain as I see this as a major top forming. I have the 19th on Thursday as reversal time and cycle so we might peek and then begin the bear market to new lows below the October lows imo.


Its quite funny as many people in November and December 2011 were shouting at me saying,, impossible for markets to see 1300+ and even 1270+ ,, I guess I were a bit too early but however I were pretty much right that markets easy could see those levels. Now people talking about all time highs and 1350-1450 and stuff ,, another perfect example on that not many see the markets could see below 1080 again which I think we will ,, so lets see again if we over next 1-2 months is going to see those levels. Dow jones already near the 2011 highs ,, and I still believe we are in a bear market which means we should not breach the 2011 highs but make a "lower high".

Watch the SPX 1307 fib retracement and watch the futures 1300 SPX , 12.500 dow jones and 2400 on Nasdaq ,, all round numbers.

Market view

Markets did get on Friday the downgrades from S&P , however all were just rumours and it got official after market close. I would not say that there were any kind of sell off or panic on this ,, maybe all were expected and then not much sell off,, however I think markets may react negative in europe on monday ,, and if so, then US will follow europe down at open Tuesday.

All in all ,, I remain heavy short ,, the rally we have since October lows are now forming a MAJOR bearish rising wedge especially on the dow jones,, dont be a fool and buy into this - as I told people in early October ,, time to go long for a rally ,, right now only fools going long the markets after a move from 1070s to near 1300.

We are imo NOT in a bull markets ,, and still in a bear market -- this means that dow jones would not make a new high and still make "lower highs" ,, where I think we will make a major lower high.

So far dow jones still below the 12.500 area ,, trendline from the highs where I think it has topped ,, so far looking good for downside from here.

Per my cycles I dont expect much either way right now ,, what I see is that from 19th January markets would make a trend change ,, which means we have peeked now and a trend change to the downside would occur.

I expect over the next 3 months or so ,, that we are going to see some MASSIVE strikes in countries ,, as countries are going to have austerity measures which many people in the countries wont like.

It seems to me that all markets needs to test the trendline from the highs ,, and on Friday morning Nasdaq did test it in the premarket ,, so this might be why markets has been waiting for ALL major indexes to test this line.

Dow jones did it already a week ago ,, and been held below this line ,,

Conclusion:

All in all ,, I'm expecting some WEAKER Q4 results ,, which would weight on the markets + we still have the potential of Greek deffault. I expect over the coming months a lot more austerity measures and lots of massive strikes by the people will come.

Markets is forming a major high , and we have been moving sideways for the last weeks ,, imo a major top forming since October lows.

I have some cycles starting from 19th January which seems like a major trend change from an upward move ,, to begin a longer term downwar move. I'm being very patient and holding all my shorts ,, so patience will imo pay you out. 2012 is NOT going to be a good year for stock markets ,, but imo a very horrible year ,, worse than 2011. Be prepared and take advantage.

Market view

Again markets had a pretty good reversal from yesterday morning ,, and then came back up as bulls bought the dip (Again) ,, people now think that bulls is going to buy the dips all the time now ,, so suddendly we are going to see a sharp reversal ,, as this wont last.

Just in case we gap up higher ,, SPX have the last fibonacci retracement at 1307 right above us,, which is a huge resistance from 2011 top and 2011 low.

All in all ,, markets still below 12.500 on dow and JPM is going to make a report.

Remember JPM usually the strongest bank of them all ,, so bulls better hope they make fantastic results ,,, if not people would be very worried about the other earnings.

I believe that financials is a great short with BAC, JPM, C at those levels now ,, as they over next weeks most likely will fall down hard.

Obama is now asking congress to raise the debt ceiling again by 1.2 trillion ,, and the vote should take place next week,, (again going to get the politican theatre???)

All in all , staying patience ,, think about it ,, SPX have moved up around 40-50 SPX points in 1 MONTH ! This is IMO extreme weak ,, and I tell you know that those 40-50 points could be erased in a few DAYS,,, but again all those days is making bulls more bullish as they "feel" that there is no end with this,, but as I said ,, I think an event is coming which will make the markets plunge very fast so I'm just waiting patient for this as I believe it will come before 30th January and the markets have so limited upside vs the downside.

Look at the NYA chart pattern ,, possible with a MINI formation and now a MAJOR formation ? If this is true,, I tell you 2012 going to be a nasty year in stock markets..... and I think its very possible.

Conclusion:

SPX have a major fib retracement from 2011 highs to 2011 lows at 1307ish ,, watch this IN CASE we go higher...

All in all upside again extreme limited ,, markets been moving up 40-50 SPX points over 1 whole month ,, which is very very weak and only 40 SPX points higher than I thought. Just wait when we get the flush in markets ,, those points will be taken out very quickly IMO...

Holding all my shorts patiently TVIX and TZA ,, no worries with this - however I would like to see some concerns in markets going into the weekend which means I would like to see a red day here on Friday.

Market view

Pretty boring day as markets closed flat at 0% ,, nothing really changed.

From my view a cycle start from YESTERDAY started ,, which suggested big price swings in markets.. we did 100% not get any swings yesterday ,,, so lets see if markets able to make some big movements end of this week.

We now have italian and spanish bond auction ,, I think those things will weight on the markets those days + US economic data.


So if we look at things I would like markets to really start a sell off into this weekend with concerns ,, which would escelate into next week , that would be my best count on the markets right now.

Dow jones again hit my 12.500 area trendline and 100% I would like this one to hold which is quite important.

I believe after this move is done ,, which is a major move to upside then I think markets will sell off hard as reach new lows from October 2011..

Conclusion:

My TVIX moved up 3% yesterday which were a good indicator that still with the markets flat ,, fear increased which is another good sign imo.

VIX hit the 20 mark and bounced a little bit on wednesday.

People telling me that VIX near 20 levels and markets wont sell off are 100% wrong. With the VIX this low ,, it has the best opportunity to begin to rise from here ,, which is bearish for markets. So what I still believe is a major move higher coming in VIX and major move lower in markets.

Looking at the weekly dow jones it looks to me like a near perfect "rising wedge" + a right shoulder in a major topping head and shoulders formation which is extreme bearish -- the same goes on with OEX.

Conclusion:

Remain long TVIX and TZA 80% and 20% most heavy with the TVIX and I believe that concerns will come into markets before this weekend which would escalate into next week to the downside as I see some very bearish things forming 19-22th January. Italian and Spanish bond auctions today and tomorrow will be important on the calendar imo and could "spark" the ignite on the sell off starting.I have been pretty bullish BAC and other banks when traded at 5$ area ,, right now I see many banks topping out and I recommend to begin heavy shorting banks from this level.