Market view

As expected markets moved down more - actually the Japanese markets is in "crash mode" not seen before 1987 , the european markets were down -4, -5% today , but the US did not care a lot like standard ?? We went down near 2-3% but, then got a very nice intraday bounce so we only went down about 1%. What happended was that overall markets did plunge down below a gap support we had and bounced up to the gap which act as resistance now. Market topped today right at the gap which is bearish and signals more downside to come near term after this bounce.

Looking at TZA which is inverse small cap ETF - we got the FIRST break in 6 MONTHS above MA(50) which is a BIG break for small caps. We found support right near MA(50) in TZA as we gapped above it this morning, that was the first signal that more downside ahead, as for now the MA(50) should act as support for the near term.

What all this means is that the upside from the close is VERY limited and means we should not trade above 1300 SPX before plunging down further. A lot of people I know of buying the dips here and have done it last weeks, but in the end they will get screwed, I think the sell off just started today and sucked in more bulls in the bounce up - so lets see near term.

Also remember its OPEX week and violent swings in markets is to be expected. The short term trend is down and as long we cant make a move above SPX 1305 we should plunge further down. The level to watch is 1305 on SPX and should act as resistance - until then we should still see below 1200 end of this month.

But what was interesting today was first breakout in TZA with good volume above MA(50) not seen the last 6 months - so lets see near term if follow through on this.

Looking at the WEEKLY DOW jones looks like we are near MAJOR MAJOR support from March lows , if we break down below that , we could plunge fast and get a crash type of move....

Near term will tell , but I think we break down from that trendline....looking by weekly charts looks like a start of a leg down. IF and only IF markets is going to rally - watch the 1300-1305 for STRONG resistance.

Overall still short SPX 1333-1330 level and HOLDING all as we just begun the decline.

Market view

Not much to say - markets did retrace from the backtest level and markets did close BELOW MA(50) on all indexes which is bearish.

IF the bulls is going to have any chances , they need to let the markets rally big over next few days 1-2% up , if not I think we will continue to move down and accelerate the move down.

I'm right now on a business trip to England London - so I wont have much time to upload new charts and so, so overall I will make some quick updates. Overall the short term trend is down and NO reason to buy it before we see strength above 1315 SPX for now... until then , watch out below as we could easy plunge down a lot more this week.

Overall the 30 min chart a bit oversold , so a minor pop tomorrow morning before another sell off ?? Who knows.... but my analysis tells me to be and STAY short and we should see a lot more weakness comming. Actually the sell off has just begun and we are about to accelerate to the downside. 1200 and below is most likely comming end of month (100 SPX points from here)

REMEMBER option expiration this week , so may get tricky and CHOPPY.......

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did a minor bounce after a big plunge down below support on Thursday. The move up were on no volume and we made a so called perfect "backtest" of the broken support. Now after backtesting support which is now resistance we moved up and then plunged back down after touching it near day end - perfect.

By fundamentals you can really see how MANIPULATED markets is , Asia was plunging down with one of the worst disasters in Japan - but WHO CARE's in the US - just lets be green and rally... yeah yeah , that just shows that FUNDAMENTALS today has nothing to do nearly - but the big boys are running the show - thats why technical analysis works a lot better cause you could see that we needed that backtest BEFORE plunging further down.

So that sets up for a nasty move down on Monday in markets.

The short term trend is still down - so no reason to buy - we should see shortly 1250-1270 by next week imho.

IF the bearish rising wedge as we BROKE down will play out - we should see the start of the upper trendline which is near 113 SPY or so - which means SPX could see 1130-1150 area as I have been calling for. I still believe we will see below 1200 SPX by end of month but time will tell and remain short big SPX 1333-1330 area.

All in all - watch out for more weakness ahead in next week and SPX needs to break above 1315 first to begin look bullish again until then the short term trend is down and no reason to buy.

Have a nice weekend

Market view

As called yesterday - markets dropped like a rock with DOW below 12.000 and SPX below 1300 and with Russells down near 3%.

What a BIG FAT red day and a very sweet day for our shorts from 1333-1330. The markets broke the uprising bearish wedge which I told about - and for now looks like we could drop pretty fast. But I wanna mention to you that we should see some "contra trend" rallies to make all the bulls buy the dips everytime....and then plunge back further.

The dollar bouncing big off my trendline as called 76.3 and witht the dollar going higher - the markets going lower (Expected this to happend - and just beginning)

SPX and QQQQ broke below MA(50) and CLOSED below this level - this does not bode well for the bulls. I still believe we see below 1200 by end of this month with lots of contatrend rallies and then sharp pullbacks from these. We still have Portugal debt problem and they really need a bailout SOON.... also US debt problems with budget and more problems in Mid East.

For today I expect another red close - cause no POMO today + Saudi Arabia day of Rage and I think we could see below 1294 sometimes today very likely.....

Overall the short term trend is still down and we wont get bullish before SPX moves above 1316 at least. Until then the trend remains down and tells us to SHORT, so we stay short heavy.

But after such a big drop tomorrow , would not be surprised if we are going to backtest the supports over next days - but have a feeling that we could close red another day today and confirm a big red week on weekly chart.

Have a nice day and weekend

Market view

Markets got a BORING BORING day yesterday - nothing to say from past - we are still in a process of a topping pattern - and about to breakdown. Calm before the storm IMO....

What I think was interesting today - was the SMH, Copper(JJC), QCOM and others already breaking down hard, those ones SHOULD be leading indicators for overall markets , and as you see small caps and other indexes still in the rising wedge or right below - but they should follow and break down hard (most likely TODAY).

Thats because we saw the hard selling pressure yesterday in copper/semiconductors ... other indexes should follow shortly

So I think today we are going to break 1294 and then fall down hard - still looking for below 1200 end of this month and still major major short SPX 1333- 1330 - so in very nice profits already - but why take the profits when we are just starting to the downside? Hold on guys - patience...

Also note that yesterday was 2 years ago the market did BOTTOM in March 2009 - so we got to the 2 year date yesterday and looks like we are ready to flush down. April 2010-May 2010 flash crash were also on a Thursday - who knows what this Thursday will bring... time will tell...
The dollar made a minor pullback before breaking out higher - lots of indexes have a so called head and shoulders pattern on 30 min chart and should be about to breakdown below neckline. Everyone talking about minor pullback to 1270-1290 before running to 1400-1500 , I just dont see it here.


Again the trend remains down and we wont get bullish BEFORE short term trend reverse and moves above 1325-1333 area - then we talk bullish , until then - SHORT.
Time will tell - but I expect a big red day today - have a nice day

Market view

Market is choppy like last week , nothing new out there , no direction yet... we get up 2% , down 2% , up 1% , down 1% and sideways for some time now. But in the end the bears will win this fight IMO and we should see below 1294. As soon we see SPX below 1294 , the markets will fall down fast and then we should see below 1200 end of this month. (Next 3 weeks)

The news yesterday for the minor rally was "Oil is down , stocks up" ... oil was down -0.5% after big run... how funny. These news you can NEVER rely on them. They will ALWAYS make the news AFTER the market move... if markets has gone back down yesterday they would say cause new fears in Mid East or something else. Just funny to see what reasons they use sometimes for markets going up other than POMO.

But after all - the top was made 1344 late February and I still think that was a top. We should not reach this level again at least not for the short term. We trade out like April still in a sideways range before heading lower. Not many new charts to update as nothing new really happended.

The most interesting is the strength of USD , which was green for second day in a row and made a bullish engulfing candle on Monday. As called the 76.3 showed support and we are bouncing nicely off it, target remains to 87ish in the dollar - so nice upside comming there and downside to come in the markets near term.

Everything in this range 1310-1330 is an excellent short - I'm already short 1333 and 1330, but holding for major swing down.

For today - very possible with minor "gap up in futures" (as normal????) and then flush down

Will cover if markets shows strengths and moves above 1333.


Have a nice day

Market view

Markets dip drop as expected and especially small caps, QQQQ ans NASDAQ got a nice drop. The SPX and Dow jones did not drop as much , but sits right now above big trendline support.

The russels also sits right aboe the major trendline support from september lows - and I see us breakdown from this near term ( over next days ). When we breakdown from here we should see heavy selling come into markets and a nice flush down in markets. The USD did bounce excatly from target 76.3 until now and did close green yesterday, so a possible bottom in the USD might be in - lets see today if we get another green close in the USD, but watch for the 76.3 still.

The short term trend is still down and no need to fight the trend - markets needs to close at least above 1320 to get bullish again - and for a good confirmation needs to break 1330-1333 resistance. Until then the markets will trend down and continue down - watch for the BIG FAT trendline from September lows , cause if we break down today or next days - its going to be really ugly....

My target is still below 1200 by end of March - so lets see how the next days/weeks plays out - many risks for markets ahead.

Have a nice day