Market view

Markets did go up yesterday as expected which was the 1st day in a month , counter trend rally from the Friday drop and I expected a move to the upside early this week. Here we are and we got it, what I didnt expect was such a BIG move to the upside , where I thought we would hold us under the last SPX top. Well - that does not change my view really - cause if we are following the April top , we should get a nasty decline again today (Wednesday) and it will only get worse with the Flash crash II comming up next week.

All in all - expecting a good reversal in markets today and red close - but the mechanical signals DID give me a BUY signal, with the move higher above 1290 SPX. So until then the short trend remains up and we wont go lower until we breakdown below 1290, but that could happend today or very near term imho if we get the reversal I am looking for. But until weakness shows up, you better hold your longs until you see the weakness in markets , otherwise you will be stopped out fast.

What I have learned is to follow the short term trend and not fight it - well it may give you few false signals as it has been choppy giving buy and sell alerts lately, but better go with the trend cause in the end , we should go down or up in a bigger trend. This CHOPPY up and DOWN fast reminds me just of a topping formation and I think we will head way down soon to 1250's and lower.

Have a nic day

Market view

The markets been up as expected early this week and there is a good possibility that the move up since the big move down on Friday is about to get finnished. I think today could maybe be the last day before next move down is comming, but probably we could see some up/sideways action. We are still below MA(10) and our mechanical buy/sell systems is still on a sell signal and wont get to a buy signal - only if we make a close above 1290 , which would indicate that the short term is up from down. But until then we should continue trending down, question is only how low we will go.

I still expect a move to 1180-1220 level - but if the markets shows us opposite we may be forced to get long. In the bigger picture this might ge a 25-years head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder being in, if this count is right - then we have a nasty move down like we have not seen before comming.

All in all - looking for a reversal soon after this early week bounce, probably by today and then down. Usually first day in a month is green, so expect us to end green today - but over the near term I expect lower prices. Most longer term indicators also points to at least a correction and further market weakness. The VIX also finally broke out huge above the falling wedge , which is the first break in MONTHS.

Have a nice day

Market view

As expected markets headed lower for the first time ( more than -1% ) in like the last 6 months. Looks like the correction got started last week with the Egypt problems and markets heading down. Havent been able to update blog since Thursday , so sorry for that. Just a quick update before the markets opening - there is a great possiblity that we are going to backtest the broken trendline before heading lower. I expect early this week markets to move to the upside, but we should not see any high highs , before heading lower. Target for the correction is still 1180-1225 area, where we have some good support. Will update with charts by tomorrow.

Have a great day

Market view

As expected markets did move choppy up into FOMC and sideways yesterday , after FOMC it was quite a non event, but I expect a big decline to begin now. 1. FOMC a non event - no positive news and with no "better" news I expect the markets to react negative to this today and tomorrow.

Today is a very important day - looking at the Russels we are about to get the buy signal - today will be telling , if Russels moves up higher today - then we should get out of shorts and long small caps - but I still believe its a HS pattern but again if trend tells me to go long , better go long. Small caps already topped and I also believe that the Russel 8000 level is the top, now we have SPX 1300 and we have Dow 12.000. Everything good round numbers for a nice correction to begin. I believe that the correction should begin from today. I have a nice chart from ETF corner on the euro and we are RIGHT at resistance. Watch out for the dollar to plunge down from here 1.37ish and the dollar rally cause we still have the nice 30 min and 60 min bullish macd divergence. Markets made dow, spx and russel to some nice round numbers , psychology levels and that will be it- we will just get above them and then fast down and I expect us to start moving down sometimes today with the euro falling down and USD getting stronger.

SPX target by end of this week is still near 1250's SPX , so today should be telling. If we get a nice rally today I will get in long positions cause the trend telling me that today is either breakdown or breakout now...

But all in all - markets VERY similar to April 2010 top , choppy up and down like we saw last weeks - (top forming) we havent moved anything... from 1296 to 1270 , back up t0 1300 and then in 1290 zone again.......Same pattern , near FOMC day too - we know what happended 1 week after.................lets see if this is any different

Time will tell - have a nice day

Market view

As expected markets is very choppy over the last sessions and I dont expect markets to make a big move either UP or DOWN before after FOMC which is today. I think today should be very interesting and especially after the FOMC. Remember - the first move after 2:15 pm is often the "fake" move, that has been the case for the last several FOMC meetings. So I expect the same pattern today, if markets goes up after FOMC - then markets is likely to drop and if markets starts moving down, then we should move up. But all in all - I expect markets to make a nice sell off - probably not totday, but beginning today and then last over the next few days. Markets has found support near MA(20) and bounced back up, I expect us to reach that level in SPX again 1274 and then flush down below it and start the correction.

Russells is still very very weak and shows no signs yet of a bullish move up. But remember the stochastics is oversold now daily chart , but can stay oversold for WEEKS or months. Only thing you need to watch is if Russels can break above 790 level with good volume. If we see that I would recommend cover shorts, but until then the trend REMAINS down in the Russels and NO NEED to fight the short term trend. If Russels make a close above 790-792 and I would say for a confirmation 794 - then I would go long small caps cause the trend will then change.

Overall it looks pretty much like April top before flash crash - markets choppy as expected over last weeks up and down.. up down... but finally thats a toppinc process and then they will start to flush out. All other indexes had began to make a correction especially in Asia, and China and India is often leading now....

Still very bullish the dollar as it came to a nice retracement support now and should be ready for a big move up after FOMC. My target for SPX this week is 1250-1260 by Friday , so lets see if we can get near this level, and find some good support.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets closed a bit higher as expected. The DOW Jones made new highs and I expect us to see 12k or make a touch of it before a big major sell off in dow. The SPX is somewhere between and lagging a bit , and especially the same with Russels, which is very very weak. Last week we saw a -5% decline in Russell2000 and yesterday it only managed to bounce a few points. There is a possibility we make it to 50% fib retracement which is at 790-792 level. Until then the short term trend is down and I remain heavy in short. This is still a topping process and you can really see how choppy markets is. I expects markets to be in this area , until FOMC this week and after there I think we will get a major sell off. I still believe 1180-1220 is a good support level and I would love to see 1180, but there is also a possibility that we will go all the way below 1000 SPX.

The monthly chart of SPX made a bearish harami which we made after a big run up in stocks, that is very bearish. The QQQQ weekly chart made a bearish engulfing pattern and the US Dollar had its pullback from its lows in november. Now the dollar is making a higher low which could be seen as a wave 2 down before a sharp wave 3 up in the dollar. On 30 min and 60 min chart we also have a bullish divergence in the dollar indicating a major rally is underway...

But again - until the Russels cant manage to breakout above 790-792 then the short term trend is down and no need to fight against it. Time will tell...

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets keeps falling down slowly and actually SPX got a confirmed SELL signal yesterday at breakdown below 1280. For now I will be looking for a probably push up to 1280-1285 before next move down , and we have a possible HS pattern. But overall the trend turned from UP to DOWN and the Russels is sitting on neckline about to breakdown further from HS pattern. This could get pretty ugly either today or early next week after option expiration day. So for now keep holding your shorts I'm still looking for 1150-1180 area, but my first downside target is 1220-1225 area where we have some good support. Either way , the trend turned down and we need a push and breakout above 1290 SPX before I think we have ANY chance to breakout and take out new highs. I think SPX will have lots of problems just breaking above 1285 and dont think we will move above this level. So what I am expecting for today is a possible gap up - and then flush down again or they will hold it neutral up today around 1280-1285 and then flush it down next week.

Happy Trading