Market view

Markets did a HUUUUUUUUGE drop and TZA running way higher , my swing position in TZA bought 37.5$ performing amazing and is now at 48.4$ , big gains (but I have not sold my swing positions yet)

However I thought yesterday we would get a short term relief rally and bought 60.7$ and added TNA more at 59, which I held. I'm right now underwater in my TNA (short term trade for next days) as I still believe a short term rally may occur very soon - but after the short term relief rally we should continue to head down further imo.

As I called weeks ago , target for SPX HS pattern was 1120-1150 and we may still reach this level in September/October or before , but we are also going to get some big fast reversals with big contratrend rallies imo.

Conclusion:

Still holding my swing trade in TZA 37.5$ as I think markets has not bottomed , however short term I think a big relief rally would occur over next 1-3 days or so.

I bought TNA at 60.7$ and TNA at 59 and currently underwater now , 50$ is a huge horisontal support in TNA and I will stop out if we move below this level.

1200 on SPX is big support too and as you see on trendline we are near some big support areas.... where we could rally or bounce from.

Have a nice day and good weekend to everyone !

Market view

As I am still on vacation , and back full time next week, I am not able to post charts.

I will try to make it short, yesterday we got another nice big plunge down in markets , with some real panic setting in. As I said before , as the MA(200) did not hold , markets could fall down fast - and I am still bearish. However I took some TNA position for a short term relief rally at 60.7$ yesterday and I am probably going to take them off on a rally to test underside of MA(200) at around 1285 near term.

Overall still holding my swing position in TZA 37.5$ as I dont think the LOW was in yet - I think we get a relief rally , but after that we should test the lows we just made and move lower.

I have a chart pattern target on TNA at 70$ so will probably sell the shares if they hit this level and then add some more TZA.

Overall the VIX daily chart telling me that a rally may occur soon as VIX is on daily sell signal , which is bullish for markets.

However , regarding to all the "bullish" signals I wont get too bullish as too much damage is done to get a new high - so just a relief rally to get things a bit overbought again before heading down more.

Have a nice day everyone and remember to follow me on twitter to get live updates.

Market view

Markets had a HUGE down day yesterday , which started pretty decent , but then plunged down all the way down to near 1250's intraday. Shorts like TZA and EDZ made a killing $$ yesterday and both up near 10% end of day.

The only thing I lost on were my short silver , which I took 50% loss yesterday and will take the rest if it continues to move higher.

My TZA frmo 37.5 working out very well and holding all still - I still believe it is NOT safe to buy the dip , but only sell the rips for now - so dont go all in stocks yet , however I see lots of good ones for biotechs in the longer term where I got THLD for 1.61$ for a 1 year hold.

The break of MA(200) was the key for the selling to begin and as expected we broke that level and continued to drift lower.

My monthly charts gave me a longer term sell signal which suggest we are entering a bear market now from the bull market we had. So I believe we are in a bear market right now - but only believes so until we get a full blown QE3 later this year possible.... then I think we may go to new highs , but until then you see POMO is not helping markets at all right now.

All in all - we may begin a contratrend rally soon as we are down so many days in a row - so that favours the bulls short timeframe , but I would sell the rips if we get one to 1300 or so as I think we are heading below 1250 this time and to 1230 for the next major support.

Have a nice day

Market view

This is just a quick update as I dont have the time to make the charts for this day analysis.

As you know I'm short and short silver and actually added some short positions yesterday.

I remain long TZA 37.5$ and holding , as you saw we broke the MA(200) as I expected and called for. This break is serious to me , I know we have been down a lot lately... but that does NOT mean we cant go lower - and in my oppinion and view - you should be carefully buying the dip. We may get a little bounce or rally for 1-2 days... but we should continue down over next week imo.

The dollar looks ready to breakout to me with the euro ready to plunge , time will tell - we have some good support at 1274 SPX , so that may give us a bounce. But overall remains on the bearish side as I think it will get worse next week.

Have a nice day

Market view

Back from a lovely vacation in Greece and looking at the markets seems like just a quite nasty week from 1340's to below 1300 again. I took a loss on my TNA position which I held (should just have sold them all before vacation , but took the loss today from my 70% position)

Back to markets - right now we are at a very critical area in markets as SPX just closed above MA(200).

As I have said before - the 3rd time we are going to test MA(200) I dont think will hold - which means , I think we are going to breakdown below the MA(200) near term.

Looking at the dollar (UUP) its on a buy signal and as long the dollar holds above 21 level , it seems to me like the dollar can rally near term and with this - the markets should fall down lower. But if the dollar however reached new lows , then the markets has a very good chance to rally.

I'm trying to ignore as much as I can on all the news with debt ceiling and so on - overall just looking at the charts and see what they are telling me.

VIX is in the critical area where we can have fear and panic and is now overbought on daily chart - which suggest some kind of bottom which could come. But when I look at the monthly chart on VIX it looks very bullish to me which means we might see some more panic ahead than here....

Its hard to predict the exact movement , but I'm quite neutral and leaning to the bearish side over the next weeks as I dont think a bottom is in place. If we break the MA(200) then I see the topping HS pattern playing out with a target in the 1130-1150 area....

I went short silver via ZSL just before the weekend 13.4's and will stop out if we break below the recent lows - I think there is a good chance that silver and gold can start to drop here - if I'm wrong I will stop out...

Remember - no one out there is never 100% right , so if you are wrong , adjust and take a little loss than sitting on a big one later on..

Got a few TZA as a starter on Friday at 37.5 - not much as I'm not overly confident this time , but if we see TZA above 40 next week I bet you its gonna go which means markets going down below MA(200).


Conclusion: I'm leaning to the bearish side now and think we may see a lot more selling over next few weeks - as we closed right above MA(200) I really dont think it will hold , also if we get a debt deal we may have a 1 day spike , but probably a sell the news event as the deal results probably wont be happy faces. Overall staying a bit neutral watching what markets doing next week - got a few starter TZA and short silver.

Have a nice weekend everyone and see you all on Monday !

Market view

This is my last update before I'm going on vacation to Greece for 1 week - so there wont be any more updates most likely until next Friday - just so you know about this.

Markets did a boring day on Tuesday , quite flat - but after a 1.6% on Monday , markets held up quite strong actually - which is BULLISH action and marked as consolidation before it goes higher.

I think as the bears could not even take us below 1320 - there is a good chance we rally higher soon.....

I'm still holding all my swing position on TNA 79.35 and will continue to do so. Before I head out to vacation I'm going to take a little profits on my TNA position as I dont have the time to look at markets everyday - but I feel pretty confident too that markets have a good chance + window dressings into end of month + more earnings comming up - which could fuel the markets higher.

So all in all - I'm thinking about just holding my TNA swing position (selling some before) but then holding some until I'm back next Friday the 29th July.

You know - IF and only IF TNA is playing out the inverted HS pattern... well then TNA might see above 100 next which I dont really believe right now - but the pattern targets have bee quite accurate in the past and if it plays out again - then we are about to see a major rally next weeks......

We are already up nicely this week and I'm already in good profits - but if this is just the start of a bigger rally - then I should hold all to get most profits.

I'm watching thet trendline on SPX at 1354 area right now as shown on chart - IF we break this line.... then I think we could see new highs actually.....

If we get a pullback today - I would watch 1310-1315 level for buying the dip before we move higher , all imo !

The question is just - if we move to this level already in this week - I bet you that we are going to break it sometimes next week. Markets has been moving very fast up since mid June with a pullback to 1295-1300 , now the question is if we move higher.

Conclusion: Holding my swing position in TNA (selling some before vacation but also holding some - reducing risk). And I'm also going to hold some good looking small caps for a swing trade 1 week.

I hope you enjoy reading my blog - and see you all next Friday where I will be back with updates every day.

Have a nice weekend and good luck trading everyone !

Market view

Wow - markets did an AMAZING rally yesterday , breaking the falling wedge / or handle pattern on my screen and moved up all day long to 1.5-2% on the way. Wow as I told people at 1295-1300 that was the buy spot to go long - and then we got a rally in just 1 single day to 1320-1330.

Overall markets is very overbought on the short term timeframe 30min and 60min - but it looks like another "kick off" start for a good rally up for next weeks - honestly I did not believe we would move this high already - if we keep going like this we will take out new highs and a target would be 1380-1400 area on SPX.....

Overall small caps TNA /IWM /RUT could be seen as a inverted HS pattern - if this is a true pattern then we had the right shoulder in - and a big rally with upside target to 111$ in TNA if we break the neckline at around 89$ would come true... thats a HUGE upside move. Honestly I dont think we will move to new highs , my SPX target is still 1345 but again - I wont rule out that new highs is possible :-)

I'm long and strong with a size position in TNA 79.35$ and already good in the money as it closed 83.5$.

Conclusion:
Short term charts tell me we could expect a pullback soon to 1310-1315 area before we move higher. Overall holding all 3x long ETF TNA from 79.35 as I think markets is going higher next weeks - I would buy the dips we get.

I wanna tell everyone now - that I am going on 1 week vacation to the bankrupt country of Greece by Friday - this means I wont be able to update any kind of charts over the weekend and the next week, so you gotta live without any updates for 1 whole week ( I'm sorry :/). Just so you are informed if I dont make updates.

Have a nice day