Market view

Woooow what a day yesterday.

If you followed me on twitter you would know that yesterday morning I took my profits in TNA from 78.3 to 88-87 level as we began to see the weakness I was talking about. With that in mind I bought TZA the opposite at 34-35 and now holding for a swing play.

I've got a sell signal on all indexes yesterday early morning - and that was the sign to tell me to sell everything I've got and I've also got a buy signal confirmed in VXX and VIX.

The only thing which is NOT confirmed yet is the dollar UUP , which I have not got any buy signals yet - and FXE euro is still on a buy signal here - but it looks like that can change fast if dollar keeps moving up.

I've also bought ZSL yesterday at 16.6 to short silver - where I think metals have another leg down until now - got a buy signal in ZSL on daily chart and it looks ready to go.

So most of the things I am looking at tells me markets is about to head down in a big way soon - as I charted 2 days ago the TZA chart inverted HS pattern - TZA stopped at 33$ and then had a BIG rally from there.

If this inverted HS indeed plays out (not sure) then we have a target of 45 area in TZA which is a lot higher from here - markets could really have a nice flush then..... so therefore I stay long TZA as the only thing right now from 34-35 area.

If we look at commodities DBC - we have a potential EXTREME bearish setup in place.

1. DBC backtested broken trendline and made the kiss of death pattern
2. DBC made a BEARISH ENGULFING on daily chart ( VERY bearish)
3. Potential topping HS pattern with right shoulder now in - the next move would be a flush below neckline at 28.3 and the target for pattern is 24.5 - thats a BIG nasty .
4. That would be inline with markets SPX dropping below 1.250 SPX and down to possible below 1200 for a correction

Ok, I was bullish 4 days ago - YES and markets DID move up - but if the MARKETS TELLS you otherwise - dont stay in your oppinion - JUST FOLLOW And READ the charts and they are right now telling that you should not be long - but short.

Overall if yesterdays down move was a fake to trap more bears - let it be the best short trap ever in 2011 - then I would get trapped , but for now I am holding my shots TZA 34-35 as what I see is a potential gap up today or little bounce before another major drop possible below 1300 this week.

VXX looks like about to breakout of big downtrend too here - which is extreme bullish.... chart posted.

Looking at some big names PCLN made a bearish harami candle and have a very possible topping HS pattern which targets 420 - thats a big nasty drop... so careful.

So time will tell - for now positioned for a very bearish move down - will tell people if I cover and go long again , but for now looks bearish to me.

As long SPX stays below 1330 now MA(50) then we are going to head down imho

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets keeps rallying for 4th day in a row - amazing and I'm still holding my TNA from 78.3$ which closed at hod yesterday at 88.9$ this is more than a 10$ gain PER SHARE , and I'm size in and been holding all.

My plan right now is to take profits on the first day I see weakness in markets cause I wont loose all I have gained at the moment - but on the other side I wont get out before we are starting to move down.

I'm getting a bit more bearish now and think we might be close to a short term top as I see lots of sectors beginning to get overbought in the short term - but remember we can stay overbought for weeks....

Right now my obj target is 1360 or so in SPX - its 1st day in a month which is USUALLY bullish - time will tell if we get another rally today but I think its good to start to get a few shorts (TZA) for a starter... but nothing big before we get confirmation.

If you follow me on twitter I will tell you when I think its time and when I am going to add.

But who knows if we see 1400+ in the next 1 month ? Its also possible - and that is why I dont really know if we are going to head down soon or we just keep moving up. My feeling right now is that on the first trading day in the near future where I see some weakness I will take profits in TNA and some longs and move into shorts for a starter at least.

Until now the trend is up and remains up until otherwise - so time will tell , but be prepared to switch 100% upside down and move into shorts. I've been long SPX 1320 and TNA 78.3 right near the bottom and already in good profits - most bulls are getting into the markets now as they feel safer to do it now - this is the time I am going to be more cautious being long and will ride it up as long as it last. Its PURE speculating - but TZA may form an inverted HS pattern with right shoulder here at 33$ if TZA dont break below 33 with good volume I think I am going to take a good position here as I also see a 30min bullish divergence playing out like I saw in TNA at 78.3. This means a possible rally in TZA could be around the corner - but TZA 33 must hold - therefore I could probably take all profits in TNA very soon and switch to TZA, time will tell...



Have a nice day

Market view

Well markets kept going higher very strong the past week and my long positions has done VERY well after my TNA big add position at 78.3 and I am still holding all shares as I think we have more upside in the near term.

Overall - what I am thinking right now is :

1. We might get a new high , not sure though as the bulls should push very hard early this week
2. Bearish sentiment too high - so a very fast push up would be great to vanish the sentiment a bit
3. I think I will start to take some profits in markets if we rally more in the next days ahead , cause I'm up big % wise on my trades like TNA and other small caps.
4. I think we might see a larger correction starting early June...

So this is my thoughts , currently still long - but getting a bit more cautious - also with that in mind that I'm already in nice profits which I am going to take soon if mkts rally higher next week.

Euro should still blast higher as called and the USD pullback imminent (already pulled back a bit )

The thing is - euro broke out of pattern on friday - Russels broke out of downtrend line since highs ( AND ITS LEADING ) which means dow and SPX is going to follow up most likely....

On the first sign I see on good selling pressure I will take profits - until then I remain long.
Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did rally nicely after yesterdays little morning pullback. If you look at TNA or small caps - WOW we just confirmed the bullish engulfing pattern nicely with a big fat green close where we closed right at trendline resistance.

Overall believe the euro is about to head higher and with that - markets should rally further up imho.

It really looks like some kind of bullflag pattern we have been trading in since early May and lets see if we wont breakout above resistance and move higher in the near term.

Today we have holiday and I expect the bulls to take us further up - so time will tell.

I still believe the euro has bottomed and a major rally should be underway either Friday or Monday per the charts , so lets see if the euro cant do a nice rally and with this expect the markets to move up.

Overall still think the small caps can break above the trendline today , just a little move higher in the small caps and we will break the trendline going from the highs , so the downtrend would official be out and a uptrend is in. I still remain heavy long TNA 78.3 and is now 83.66 , already up huge , but holding all as I believe we go higher.

Financials may be a huge buying opportunity soon as we are right around some nice support and they are all very depressed - remember to buy when things are depressed and out of favour.

Follow me on twitter - I called the silver rally and oil rally, and looking for strong commodities rally with metal and mining stocks + steel stocks going in the near term.

Take in mind too that the bearish sentiment has never been this high since August 2010.... and guess what happeneded after August 2010 ? You remember the non stop rally for a multi month high ? Yeah that was it - not betting on a big rally , but at least some more upside before...



Have a nice day

Market view

Markets gapped down and rallied over the day nicely - commodities which I have been bullish out with gold and silver still up nicely since my call late last week.

Silver up 8% from call and oil did a very nice rally yesterday and seems like starting up. Overall commodities looks great and on the run latley.

I think metal and mining companys + steel companies should see some good upside moves in the near term which looks very bullish to me.

TNA (3 x small cap bull ) added 78.3 and closed yesterday at 80.49 made a so called BULLISH ENGULFING pattern - which is a very bullish pattern. IF this is a real reversal - then we should see a green close to confirm upside from here today.

As stated - we needed to see the reversal this week and yesterday we got a nice reversal - still looking for a lot more upside + window dressings into month end at least.

The dollar looks like its still in pullback mode where the euro FXE should rally from here - still very bullish the euro as it looks like it bottomed out - and with a rising euro I bet you markets is going to rally.....

So overall still bullish - very bearish sentiment usually wrong - so a good rally should be in the cards imho.

Watch TNA small caps if we confirm the upside bullish engulfing pattern - looks great here...

Have a nice day

Market view

Been very busy over the weekend and just came back today.

Overall markets been a bit weak lately and $SPX filled a gap right at 1312.5 perfectly.

I think this was what markets has been wanting since early May before a big rally to come and as usual I think Im a bit early in and still remains long SPX 1322.

I think we have some strong upside in the markets this week and early next week so lets see if we cant begin rally soon - silver and all other commodities looks strong to me with silver up 4% today and oil up too.

Overall still looking for new highs , but time will tell how "strong our bounce/rally will be in the near term... with some window dressings included.

We really need to see some strength in markets right NOW this week - if not it may get really ugly in markets , so I expect them to make the markets bounce hard from this area by tomorrow - but again no one is 100% right and I thought we would go up from 1320 level , now we are at 1310's - but lets see if Im a little bit off before the run. It seems like we have been trading in a bull flag since 1370's but we really need to get going very soon.

Still remain heavy long and looking for some short term strength

Have a nice day

Market view

Most bears celebrated a red close today and a sell off last 1 hour of the day - which I think were a classic bear trap by the MM's.

As I have mentioned Thursday , a pullback would target 1330-1333 and I were hoping for this to happend - as we woul get a much better looking inverted HS pattern. Right now it looks brilliant to me - and I read many people is looking for 1250 and there next week with a big drop to come next week, I just dont see it as:

1. We made a clear inverse HS pattern as seen on chart.
2. Bearish sentiment is still a bit too high currently
3. Silver, Oil and Commodities looks bullish to me
4. Someone bought heavu FXE(Euro) on Friday - but MM's dropped it down on low volume and bought on big volume. Who knows if anything good is to come with the euro by Monday.
5. The inverted HS pattern targets 1375 next week - and I still have an objective target to the 78.6% fib retracement at 1381.61 - for sure we could go higher , but this is just an important fib from 2007 top to 2009 low which I think we will reach.
6. FXE euro closed right at trendline ready to blast higher
7. All indexes closed ABOVE big support areas : DOW : 12.500 , NASDAQ : 2800 , SPX 1330 (all bullish closes)

Either way monday will be telling cause if we break below support at 1325 - we could see some heavy selling - but as long we stay above this level ( also on a possible gap down monday ) then the bulls are in charge to new highs.

Good luck and have a nice weekend