Market view

The rally is about to get long in the tooth now - but as I expected , if SPX broke 1304 MA(50) then watch the 1310ish resistance from the 1344 top, which should hold as the last resistance for the downtrend. If we breakout big above this , its very possible we visit the highs. But overall the dow jones BACKTESTED broken trendline yesterday and the russels were weak yesterday cause russels is at resistance from highs too. So every indexe is near the resistance from the highs ( downtrend resistance) and right now everything VERY overbought short term - so this contratrend rally did was it was supposed to do - wash out some shorts and then scooop in the longs.

Its so funny to see everyday this week that BAD news makes the markets rally big time , no sense about the fundamentals , economic data and markets, it is so corrupt and manpipulated today so the only thing which works is technicals - and they tell us that markets should BACKTEST broken trendlines before going further down + reaching the upper downtrend resistance before heading further down. That is what is taking place now - and if a reversal is to happend , today is KEY imho...... I need a good reversal today and let the markets close red and not move any higher if the resistance is to hold. The Nasdaq is often the leading index and QQQ and Nasdaq did yesterday just hit MA(50) and is below now, I would say its a nice kiss of MA(50) and we should see next big decline to come after this kiss.

Take a look at the VIX - we are RIGHT at the trendline support from the lows - a really good rally from here in the VIX will confirm another BIG drop comming in markets.

ADX is still saying SELL SELL and my system also tels me to sell - so bulls really need to confirm this rally with another big one today , then it would probably be confirmed , but until now - SELL

Economic data were bad yesterday, more problems in Japan , Portugal crisis widening, Jerusalem bomb explodes, Yemen and Bahrain still protests etc etc... but WHO cares...... markets up :) ( just shows you fundamentals has nothing to do )

As expected markets made a nice contra trend rally over the last 4-5 days - the VIX exploded and got too fast up and needed a pullback.

1. The VIX is now back to support and testing trendline from the lows and is now ready for another major rally.
2. The dow jones were weaker yesterday and did make a rally to backtest a broken trendline from September lows
3. The QQQ or Nasdaq Comp did a BIG rally yesterday ( cause it was weaker than all other indexes ) but I will remind you that QQQ and Nasdaq have been a leading index - and we got the kiss yesterday of MA(50) and closed right below - a good fast reversal should happend now as we are testing this
4. SPX did push above MA(50) - and is right now on a sweet spot near the trendline from 1344 highs in this zone - a fast good reversal today will indicate a big plunge to come.
5. As supposed to do - this rally did make the sentiment a lot more bullish - everyone calling for new highs now and saying dont short this "fucking market, just buy the fucking d!P!!!!!" - again as expected they will be butt fucked with their arms down , this time just heavier.
6. Remember the bad loans data from FED to be relased this week ? Should be released TODAY ( everyone forgot about it ... )
7. Syria Yemen and Bahrain in mass protest today
8. EU summit will finnish today - dont expect ANY news on details how to expand the fund and help EU countries other than just "talk"
9. Ireland seems to need a lot more money already , they should be asking for more near term
10. End of March usually the worst statistical.
11. In my book the bottom ( or not bottom ) made at 1250 is NOT a bottom , a bottom is NOT caused by a GAP UP and RUN , but with a GAP down , flush and RALLY.......
12. Expect after today if we wont breakout big above all those resistances - expect a NASTY reversal into next week and my target of SPX below 1200 remains seen end of March

But overall I thought the decline would begin earlier this week , but looks like it will begin today and a nasty nasty red week next , should come....do NOT be fooled to go long here - as I said , the bulls will now scream new highs is comming bla bla bla , until a fast sharp move down is comming and they will be stucked another time. The problem is this move down will be more ugly than the other ones we saw last 1 month........

Have a nice weekend everyone still short 1333-1330 and looking for below 1200

Market view

All in all - a quiet day, markets did not move a lot but is still below overhead resistance. The materials did push up and made it right shoulder in a big HS pattern as you can see.

The next drop is in line with a break down of this HS pattern and SPY did close right below MA(20) and MA(50) which acts as resistance. The dollar is about to make a major breakout with the euro making a big plunge here soon on Portugal worries.

Portugal said NO to austerity plan - which was a PLAN to get the bailout. ECB requires that the Portuguese must cut down debt somehow to get a bailout plan..........but today they all rejected and in the media you hear that they rejected plan and now must ask IMF and ECB for bailout ( THATS not very new news , we all knew that Portugal must get a bailout , but how will they get the bail out and how will the come off with the debt and how will they pay back the loan from IMF ? ) thats the question we will hear over next days with EU summit tomorrow and Friday.

Also we have massive protest on Friday in Yemen and Syria, the Japan have cant drink their water now and there are still major problems. The US home sales data were VERY ugly today - and still war in Libya - but WHO CARES ?? The US markets went up , what I mean with this is that FUNDAMENTAL NEWS or so on does NOT drive the markets , but ALWAYS LAGS the markets. The only thing WHICH works is TECHNICALS in this stupid market, which is played by big boys, and computers.......its not a free market...

But the technicals told us that we were in due for a bounce - cause everything got very overbought in shorts and the VIX. Take a look at VIX , now came back down to test support and NOW the VIX is ready to RALLY back up again.....after the pullback (technicals tells me so)

So all in all technicals telling me that we are ahead of a major drop , and if I am right we should begin tomorrow..(Thursday)

I think the contra trend rally is done and as I have been saying over last days that this was only a contra trend rally , the volume is declining with markets moving up and we GAPPED up from bottom , not GAP down and then up which is a bottom. So target remains still that we see below 1200 end of THIS month...... 100 points in 1 week - going to be a funny ride.

Everything in place now with the USD about to breakout big near term with the euro falling apart with Portugal , Ireland and Greece - and who knows if Spain and Italy comes in the picture now ?? (What I mean is that I dont think EU will go down now , but sometimes ... yes ) but I think lots of fears near term now which will make the market crash or plunge big time like we saw in 2010 april flash crash. If SPX takes out 1200 and moves accelerates my target is the support trendline on PF chart at 1080-1100 AREA ; do I sound bearish ? well .... I AM for good reasons...

Time will tell , I remain short from SPX 1333-1330 big time and holding - patience is required , but big profits will be made $$ thats how you make them.

Have a nice day

Market view

Wow - what a BORING day yesterday , one of the most boring days in 2011 - we did not move anything nearly , just flat and a bit down. Overall the markets did not have strength today to move to 1303 test and probably 1310-1315 (trendline from highs) - but not sure if we will get that test , but we could get it.

Today will be very interesting as Portugal could either fall hard today as they are voting - so what I think is that they will ask for bailout from IMF and ECB as they cant handle its debt - but that would make the euro fall hard. Usually the late March is STATISTICAL bad for markets - and I expect this late March to be extreme bad starting any day as our "contra trend" rally is near done...

But again we MAY get the last push up to test MA(50) right above 1300 or test the trendline from highs 1310 - but we may also just stop here cause heavy resistance at 1300 as mentioned many times before...

The short term trend is STILL down as we are still in a downtrend since then highs - the volume declining on the rally up and thats a weak sign for bulls. I stand by this - the markets DID NOT BOTTOM last week at 1250 - because a BOTTOM is never made on a "GAP UP", but a bottom is made when markets is flushing down or GAP down , and THEN strong up. Therefore we should take us 1250 SPX very soon and move down below 1200 my target before end of month. I have 6 trading days yet to see if my target below 1200 will be reached - but I think if any big problems in EU + the Mid East + Japan - then we could fall HARD...

But for the near term - watch Portugal today - EU Summit meetings on Thursday and Friday will also give focus on the EU..... Portugal Premiere Minister will resign if they dont agree on the cutting plan and then they are going to fall in the hand like Greece and Ireland (remember last years sell off on Greece???)

Well time will tell - still heavy short SPX 1333-1330 and HOLDING all as we are about to see the biggest sell off to come here.

Have a nice day

Market view

Bulls are happy campers at the moment - cause we got a contra trend rally and there might be another minor gap up. Yesterday was actually a WEAK rally - cause of the very low volume , which is declining on this rally since 1250 , which is NOT bullish , but BEARISH.

This is a clear CONTRA TREND rally as I have been stated that we would get in this bigger decline - I did not think we would just go down , but get lots of contra trend rallies and here we got them.

Overall we are near testing lots of moving averages right above 1300.

1300 is a more psychology resistance level - we have MA(50) at 1303 , we have a trendline from a downtrend channel at 1300, we have MA(20) at 1304 so lots of technical resistance - but if the smart guys are really going to SUCK those bulls in - they know these and are probably going to sqwuuize us to 1310-1315 trendline which is a trendline from the TOP in February , but that is ONLY if we break above those lines.

Overall what IS comming is a SHARP SHARP decline - and if my target is still holding we should see below 1200 BEFORE end of month.

Looking on the Dow Jones chart - we might have a backtest of broken support + test of trendline from highs (perfect spot imho) thats around 12.140 or so.....

Well thats 100 points drop from here but I have still 8 days to make this come true and I think when the next selling begins , watch out to downside , cause we could easy drop 30-40 handles in SPX a day.

But only cause everyone is buying the dip - all the retailers bought this too and will (again) be screwed and then plunge us down , what will come to make the big plunge I dont know... but we bounced from a big trendline since march 2009 lows in dow jones and got a sharp little rally but the volume is declining and we are testing big moving averages here soon.

So I am expecting for now that the contra trend rally is over or the very last push up might come before a plunge rest of week and probably next, so be prepared.....cause I think this move to downside will be the worst we have seen over last 1 month.

Have a nice day still short big 1333-1330 and holding , about to get a buy signal - but needs confirmation.

Market view

Not much to say - we got a contra trend relief rally to suck in some more bulls - the reasons for this was Gaddafi decleared cease of military ( but did not work out seems like ?? still war) - also the Japan crisis is ongoing and getting worse.

All in all - as I have been saying before , everything below 1298-1303 is a big short opportunity and you should take it. There is a good possibility that we may see a gap higher monday to this resistance - but IF we get one - thats the reason to load up big time in shorts. I believe this week could be a very very ugly and bearish week for markets - and I think we may still see below 1200 end of month ( we have 9 more sessions..). So thats a big move to the downside - but lets see if we wont get below 1250 this week and take us out to new lows.

All in all the week ended in red and the technical picture is still very bearish,, this week EU need to find a plan to deal with the EU debt problems - and that could give a big pressure on the Euro, we have not heard so much about it cause of Japan and Libya , but we will hear more on it this week imho , combined with Japan and MENA countries.

The short term trend is still down and no reason to cover the shorts on such weak bounces in markets, thats just a good opportunity to sell it - watch out for a minor gap up Monday morning as standard "futures operations" to 1290 area before plunging down.

If I am right , we should see the most ugly decline in markets to come here near term and that wont be pretty for markets and would be panic type of move.

Time will tell , but I remain short big 1333-1330 area - good luck

Market view

As widely expected an green UP day on Thursday with holidays , but the fundamentals and economic problems in EU , Japan , Mid East are still there and markets ignored it yesterday. But after all markets were very oversold and overdue for a holiday bounce....

Well markets did get a bounce but VERY weak bounce where the small caps did close near flat (only 0.22 % up by the day ) and other indexes only up near 1%.

SPX reached the target I told about around 1275-1280 and closed 1273.... I hope you got added some shorts.

The USD really needs to breakout - to me looks like a "wash out" and take the stops below trendline before rally big to 87-88 level..... so watch out , all headlines telling me "USD about to crash and so , sentiment is VERY low" and the euro is facing BIG problems near term with Portugal and Ireland and Greece. I guess next week will be all about Euro debt countries or lots of the news WILL be... and I can easy see the euro plunge back down below 1.3$ pretty fast with the markets plunging down further.

All in all , the bulls did not make any good moves to the technical picture. The short term trend is still down and will continue. The upside resistance to watch it 1298-1303 area - EVERYTHING below this level is a big fat short - if we rally more today (which I dont think we will.....) then short all you can if we move closer to the resistances.

But all in all , looks like we could really break down hard today, also with the problems in Libya.

I'm looking for a clear breakdown of 1250 level next and I dont think you have seen the "big selling yet" , which is to come. Think about it - when Japan have problems + Libya fight or Mid East problems + US debt problems need to be solved soon + EU Debt countries next week needs to find a plan - well all in all a good coctail for a crash type of move.

So no reason to cover shorts , long the USD and short the markets since 1333-1330 and waiting for the big sell off to come near term. If you were short when my signal gave us , you would be in some FAT profits right now - but I would recommend holding all as there is no signals which looks bullish to me and downtrend still intact , with every bulls trying to buy the dip....but will get screwed again.

Have a nice day

Market view

As very much expected - markets plunged further down and closed down near -2% for the day. We filled the gap and the bottom for today was near a 2 year trendline from the bottom in March 2009, a big trendline support. If we loose this trendline we could see a type of crash move down.

Its St. Patricks day and I think we could see some green today - at least in the start before plunge down further near close or by tomorrow.

Remember also triple withing expiration date tomorrow - so very volatile moves may come.......

Overall I believe that the dollar bottomed with another bullish harami reversal confirmed - lets see if the dollar will hold the lows - if not may turn out ugly for the dollar - but looks like the euro topped this morning in the 1.4's touch and should be ready to dive.

Overall the short term trend remains down and SPX needs to show strength and move ABOVE 1300-1305 before the short term trend will turn up, until then we will see LOWER LOWS and LOWER highs - so a move to 1275-1280 before another plunge ? who know ... but everything below 1300 is a UNIQUE shorting opportunity as I think we will plunge back down below the 2 year trendline and fast down to below 1200......

But for today overall looks like we could see a gap up to 1275-1280 area before next down move, we have some good resistance in this area - if we break this watch 1300 as a big resistance, but dont think we will see that high before plunge further

You see when SPX were at 1330 area , no one thought SPX could be under 1200 this month or under 1294 - but until now we are getting very close with SPX at 1250 area, so only 50 points more to downside which we could see in 1 day near term....

Overall have the feeling that we MIGHT see a green day today - with a RED day again tomorrow , but only because holiday today and a little bounce to make a lower high, time will tell.

We have a HS pattern in copper and nasdaq composite with downside target 2500 for the short term.

Holding all major short positions 1333-1330 and in BIG profits already , but why cover if we just begun the decline and the short term trend remains down ?

Have a nice day