Market view

As widely expected an green UP day on Thursday with holidays , but the fundamentals and economic problems in EU , Japan , Mid East are still there and markets ignored it yesterday. But after all markets were very oversold and overdue for a holiday bounce....

Well markets did get a bounce but VERY weak bounce where the small caps did close near flat (only 0.22 % up by the day ) and other indexes only up near 1%.

SPX reached the target I told about around 1275-1280 and closed 1273.... I hope you got added some shorts.

The USD really needs to breakout - to me looks like a "wash out" and take the stops below trendline before rally big to 87-88 level..... so watch out , all headlines telling me "USD about to crash and so , sentiment is VERY low" and the euro is facing BIG problems near term with Portugal and Ireland and Greece. I guess next week will be all about Euro debt countries or lots of the news WILL be... and I can easy see the euro plunge back down below 1.3$ pretty fast with the markets plunging down further.

All in all , the bulls did not make any good moves to the technical picture. The short term trend is still down and will continue. The upside resistance to watch it 1298-1303 area - EVERYTHING below this level is a big fat short - if we rally more today (which I dont think we will.....) then short all you can if we move closer to the resistances.

But all in all , looks like we could really break down hard today, also with the problems in Libya.

I'm looking for a clear breakdown of 1250 level next and I dont think you have seen the "big selling yet" , which is to come. Think about it - when Japan have problems + Libya fight or Mid East problems + US debt problems need to be solved soon + EU Debt countries next week needs to find a plan - well all in all a good coctail for a crash type of move.

So no reason to cover shorts , long the USD and short the markets since 1333-1330 and waiting for the big sell off to come near term. If you were short when my signal gave us , you would be in some FAT profits right now - but I would recommend holding all as there is no signals which looks bullish to me and downtrend still intact , with every bulls trying to buy the dip....but will get screwed again.

Have a nice day

Market view

As very much expected - markets plunged further down and closed down near -2% for the day. We filled the gap and the bottom for today was near a 2 year trendline from the bottom in March 2009, a big trendline support. If we loose this trendline we could see a type of crash move down.

Its St. Patricks day and I think we could see some green today - at least in the start before plunge down further near close or by tomorrow.

Remember also triple withing expiration date tomorrow - so very volatile moves may come.......

Overall I believe that the dollar bottomed with another bullish harami reversal confirmed - lets see if the dollar will hold the lows - if not may turn out ugly for the dollar - but looks like the euro topped this morning in the 1.4's touch and should be ready to dive.

Overall the short term trend remains down and SPX needs to show strength and move ABOVE 1300-1305 before the short term trend will turn up, until then we will see LOWER LOWS and LOWER highs - so a move to 1275-1280 before another plunge ? who know ... but everything below 1300 is a UNIQUE shorting opportunity as I think we will plunge back down below the 2 year trendline and fast down to below 1200......

But for today overall looks like we could see a gap up to 1275-1280 area before next down move, we have some good resistance in this area - if we break this watch 1300 as a big resistance, but dont think we will see that high before plunge further

You see when SPX were at 1330 area , no one thought SPX could be under 1200 this month or under 1294 - but until now we are getting very close with SPX at 1250 area, so only 50 points more to downside which we could see in 1 day near term....

Overall have the feeling that we MIGHT see a green day today - with a RED day again tomorrow , but only because holiday today and a little bounce to make a lower high, time will tell.

We have a HS pattern in copper and nasdaq composite with downside target 2500 for the short term.

Holding all major short positions 1333-1330 and in BIG profits already , but why cover if we just begun the decline and the short term trend remains down ?

Have a nice day

Market view

As expected markets moved down more - actually the Japanese markets is in "crash mode" not seen before 1987 , the european markets were down -4, -5% today , but the US did not care a lot like standard ?? We went down near 2-3% but, then got a very nice intraday bounce so we only went down about 1%. What happended was that overall markets did plunge down below a gap support we had and bounced up to the gap which act as resistance now. Market topped today right at the gap which is bearish and signals more downside to come near term after this bounce.

Looking at TZA which is inverse small cap ETF - we got the FIRST break in 6 MONTHS above MA(50) which is a BIG break for small caps. We found support right near MA(50) in TZA as we gapped above it this morning, that was the first signal that more downside ahead, as for now the MA(50) should act as support for the near term.

What all this means is that the upside from the close is VERY limited and means we should not trade above 1300 SPX before plunging down further. A lot of people I know of buying the dips here and have done it last weeks, but in the end they will get screwed, I think the sell off just started today and sucked in more bulls in the bounce up - so lets see near term.

Also remember its OPEX week and violent swings in markets is to be expected. The short term trend is down and as long we cant make a move above SPX 1305 we should plunge further down. The level to watch is 1305 on SPX and should act as resistance - until then we should still see below 1200 end of this month.

But what was interesting today was first breakout in TZA with good volume above MA(50) not seen the last 6 months - so lets see near term if follow through on this.

Looking at the WEEKLY DOW jones looks like we are near MAJOR MAJOR support from March lows , if we break down below that , we could plunge fast and get a crash type of move....

Near term will tell , but I think we break down from that trendline....looking by weekly charts looks like a start of a leg down. IF and only IF markets is going to rally - watch the 1300-1305 for STRONG resistance.

Overall still short SPX 1333-1330 level and HOLDING all as we just begun the decline.

Market view

Not much to say - markets did retrace from the backtest level and markets did close BELOW MA(50) on all indexes which is bearish.

IF the bulls is going to have any chances , they need to let the markets rally big over next few days 1-2% up , if not I think we will continue to move down and accelerate the move down.

I'm right now on a business trip to England London - so I wont have much time to upload new charts and so, so overall I will make some quick updates. Overall the short term trend is down and NO reason to buy it before we see strength above 1315 SPX for now... until then , watch out below as we could easy plunge down a lot more this week.

Overall the 30 min chart a bit oversold , so a minor pop tomorrow morning before another sell off ?? Who knows.... but my analysis tells me to be and STAY short and we should see a lot more weakness comming. Actually the sell off has just begun and we are about to accelerate to the downside. 1200 and below is most likely comming end of month (100 SPX points from here)

REMEMBER option expiration this week , so may get tricky and CHOPPY.......

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did a minor bounce after a big plunge down below support on Thursday. The move up were on no volume and we made a so called perfect "backtest" of the broken support. Now after backtesting support which is now resistance we moved up and then plunged back down after touching it near day end - perfect.

By fundamentals you can really see how MANIPULATED markets is , Asia was plunging down with one of the worst disasters in Japan - but WHO CARE's in the US - just lets be green and rally... yeah yeah , that just shows that FUNDAMENTALS today has nothing to do nearly - but the big boys are running the show - thats why technical analysis works a lot better cause you could see that we needed that backtest BEFORE plunging further down.

So that sets up for a nasty move down on Monday in markets.

The short term trend is still down - so no reason to buy - we should see shortly 1250-1270 by next week imho.

IF the bearish rising wedge as we BROKE down will play out - we should see the start of the upper trendline which is near 113 SPY or so - which means SPX could see 1130-1150 area as I have been calling for. I still believe we will see below 1200 SPX by end of month but time will tell and remain short big SPX 1333-1330 area.

All in all - watch out for more weakness ahead in next week and SPX needs to break above 1315 first to begin look bullish again until then the short term trend is down and no reason to buy.

Have a nice weekend

Market view

As called yesterday - markets dropped like a rock with DOW below 12.000 and SPX below 1300 and with Russells down near 3%.

What a BIG FAT red day and a very sweet day for our shorts from 1333-1330. The markets broke the uprising bearish wedge which I told about - and for now looks like we could drop pretty fast. But I wanna mention to you that we should see some "contra trend" rallies to make all the bulls buy the dips everytime....and then plunge back further.

The dollar bouncing big off my trendline as called 76.3 and witht the dollar going higher - the markets going lower (Expected this to happend - and just beginning)

SPX and QQQQ broke below MA(50) and CLOSED below this level - this does not bode well for the bulls. I still believe we see below 1200 by end of this month with lots of contatrend rallies and then sharp pullbacks from these. We still have Portugal debt problem and they really need a bailout SOON.... also US debt problems with budget and more problems in Mid East.

For today I expect another red close - cause no POMO today + Saudi Arabia day of Rage and I think we could see below 1294 sometimes today very likely.....

Overall the short term trend is still down and we wont get bullish before SPX moves above 1316 at least. Until then the trend remains down and tells us to SHORT, so we stay short heavy.

But after such a big drop tomorrow , would not be surprised if we are going to backtest the supports over next days - but have a feeling that we could close red another day today and confirm a big red week on weekly chart.

Have a nice day and weekend

Market view

Markets got a BORING BORING day yesterday - nothing to say from past - we are still in a process of a topping pattern - and about to breakdown. Calm before the storm IMO....

What I think was interesting today - was the SMH, Copper(JJC), QCOM and others already breaking down hard, those ones SHOULD be leading indicators for overall markets , and as you see small caps and other indexes still in the rising wedge or right below - but they should follow and break down hard (most likely TODAY).

Thats because we saw the hard selling pressure yesterday in copper/semiconductors ... other indexes should follow shortly

So I think today we are going to break 1294 and then fall down hard - still looking for below 1200 end of this month and still major major short SPX 1333- 1330 - so in very nice profits already - but why take the profits when we are just starting to the downside? Hold on guys - patience...

Also note that yesterday was 2 years ago the market did BOTTOM in March 2009 - so we got to the 2 year date yesterday and looks like we are ready to flush down. April 2010-May 2010 flash crash were also on a Thursday - who knows what this Thursday will bring... time will tell...
The dollar made a minor pullback before breaking out higher - lots of indexes have a so called head and shoulders pattern on 30 min chart and should be about to breakdown below neckline. Everyone talking about minor pullback to 1270-1290 before running to 1400-1500 , I just dont see it here.


Again the trend remains down and we wont get bullish BEFORE short term trend reverse and moves above 1325-1333 area - then we talk bullish , until then - SHORT.
Time will tell - but I expect a big red day today - have a nice day