Market view

Market is choppy like last week , nothing new out there , no direction yet... we get up 2% , down 2% , up 1% , down 1% and sideways for some time now. But in the end the bears will win this fight IMO and we should see below 1294. As soon we see SPX below 1294 , the markets will fall down fast and then we should see below 1200 end of this month. (Next 3 weeks)

The news yesterday for the minor rally was "Oil is down , stocks up" ... oil was down -0.5% after big run... how funny. These news you can NEVER rely on them. They will ALWAYS make the news AFTER the market move... if markets has gone back down yesterday they would say cause new fears in Mid East or something else. Just funny to see what reasons they use sometimes for markets going up other than POMO.

But after all - the top was made 1344 late February and I still think that was a top. We should not reach this level again at least not for the short term. We trade out like April still in a sideways range before heading lower. Not many new charts to update as nothing new really happended.

The most interesting is the strength of USD , which was green for second day in a row and made a bullish engulfing candle on Monday. As called the 76.3 showed support and we are bouncing nicely off it, target remains to 87ish in the dollar - so nice upside comming there and downside to come in the markets near term.

Everything in this range 1310-1330 is an excellent short - I'm already short 1333 and 1330, but holding for major swing down.

For today - very possible with minor "gap up in futures" (as normal????) and then flush down

Will cover if markets shows strengths and moves above 1333.


Have a nice day

Market view

Markets dip drop as expected and especially small caps, QQQQ ans NASDAQ got a nice drop. The SPX and Dow jones did not drop as much , but sits right now above big trendline support.

The russels also sits right aboe the major trendline support from september lows - and I see us breakdown from this near term ( over next days ). When we breakdown from here we should see heavy selling come into markets and a nice flush down in markets. The USD did bounce excatly from target 76.3 until now and did close green yesterday, so a possible bottom in the USD might be in - lets see today if we get another green close in the USD, but watch for the 76.3 still.

The short term trend is still down and no need to fight the trend - markets needs to close at least above 1320 to get bullish again - and for a good confirmation needs to break 1330-1333 resistance. Until then the markets will trend down and continue down - watch for the BIG FAT trendline from September lows , cause if we break down today or next days - its going to be really ugly....

My target is still below 1200 by end of March - so lets see how the next days/weeks plays out - many risks for markets ahead.

Have a nice day

Market view

Market did get a nice push back again Friday and the USD did touch my target for the trendline at 76.3 exactly BOTTOM Friday. I am not sure if I had drawn the trendline correct - but IF I have, then the dollar should have bottomed out Friday and now begin a major rally from this trendline. I dont know what events or news which will come to make the dollar rally - but something must be comming soon. Watch out and see if 76.3 in USD is holding , as I see it we got there and should make a reversal here , as I have been saying last week that the downside target for the USD would be 76.3 or maybe 76 and not move below 76.

The market is still in a correction mode IMO and I think we did all last week set up a choppy trading week up 2% down 2% , up 1% down 1% and we nearly traded sideways with not much of a trend. But finally I see this breaking down with the USD breaking out higher from here and we should see below 1200 and maybe test the channel lower trendline at 1180 SPX by end of March.

We have much comming up this month - Portugal needs bailout, Ireland renegotiate bailout, Greece debt problems, Mid east unrest and especially if we hear more about Saudi Arabia , oil is going to rocket launch to 140$ a barrel.

All in all - still holding my big short positions at 1333-1330 and holding. We need to clear 1330-1333 big resistance area if the bulls is going to show strength again.

Remember in April 2010 , BEFORE the flash crash, markets were also very choppy up and down and moving sideways exactly like today - I think the bears will win in the end and when we breakdown below 1294 SPX , its going to get fast to the downside.

For todays trading not sure if we gap up or gap down - but watch the USD closely and see if we get any strength - that should indicate a drop in markets....the euro is slamming into resistance and MA(200)

Have a nice day

Market view

Market did a very sweet rally for the bulls and gave all bulls hope again that we are going to test new highs. I still believe that this move is in a particular downtrend and we will make a "lower high" than the previous highs....

If you look at the dollar - yesterdays move was not cause of the dollar weakness - actually the dollar is looking stronger and stronger here as it comes down to the monthly support at 76.3 or so to be precise... so there is a possibility imo that we get a small wash out , but we should NOT see below 76 in the dollar IMO,.. so watch the dollar carefully.

I still believe the dollar is about to head up to 87ish comming months..

Markets came above 1320 and now people asking me if I got long - well I didn not get long , but I'm still playing stocks on the long side ( follow on twitter and I will post picks) - but I am still major short at 1333-1330 so I am quite break even here. Today should tell the story - I believe everyone is expecting so good numbers today , which leads me to be careful , as expecations are quite high.

I still believe SPX will see below 1200 this month - so if thats right , beginning to load the boat with shorts here should be great and you should be making a lot of money loading in this area.

My plan would be to add shorts in this area , and then have a tight stop loss ( if markets breaks above 1335 - take the small loss and move on )

But overall looking for the dollar to be bottoming here at the MONTHLY trendline - and when it does it should bounce up big on this one , and stocks should fall hard with the dollar moving higher.

Latest news today : http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/fed-policy-makers-signal-abrupt-end-to-bond-purchases-in-june.html

"

Fed Policy Makers Signal Abrupt End to Bond Purchases in June"

If that is right or just rumours - well then the dollar could do a major move up and markets could fall hard - cause everyone knows that POMO is the one holding markets up.
Good luck to all

Market view

Markets did a minor and very weak bounce yesterday , near flat/up after heavy selling pressure tuesday. We are still sitting right at the big fat trendline since September rally started - and when we break down from here this is going to get very ugly, panic will occur and heavy selling with big impulsive moves down would come.

It can happend anytime from now - and still expect a move below the low 1294 we had to make a lower low.

Looking at the dollar from monthly chart from all time lows - we are getting close to the ultimate lows before hitting trendline.

Well in this zone there should come up a lot buyers in the dollar - but the ultimate touch of trendline if I drawed it precise is 76.3 area and we are now at 76.6's. So currently we could have minor minor downside in dollar - before a huge rally underway to 87ish all IMO.

The short term trend is still down and we are still very bearish markets now and holding all shorts from 1333-1330. To make us bullish again we need a push above 1321 - but UNTIL then we remain very bearish and everything below 1321 is BEARISH.

Our sell signals on the 22th Feb remains intact and therefore if we bounce - it should be shortable.

Taking a look at VXX - FAZ and other ETF's clearly , BIG and SMART money already loaded at the bottom - vs dumb money going long markets and buying every dip until they get stuck this time....volume tells it all.

All in all - expect a move lower very soon with the dollar going to rally and we should break below the big trendline and when we do - you should expect HEAVY selling pressure.

There are LOTS of risks in the future - take a look at the picture of risks...

Target still below 1200 for this month

Have a nice day

Market view

As expected markets did the backtest I mentioned last days - we got the bounce up from 1300 first to 1320-1330 area before next big move down. This time we should see below 1294 and I expect us to see the lower trendline in the downtrend. On the DOW Jones its about 11.900 area you should be watching for another little contra trend rally.

Markets did close right at big long term support - IF breached today we should get a nasty sell off imho and the panic should begin. For the bulls to have any hope now - they need a big rally today , because we made a bearish engulfing candlestick on daily charts yesterday , which is in fact VERY bearish......

I'm still short SPX 1333 and 1330 and holding - and very long the dollar. The dollar got green yesterday after Mid East problems and Bernanke and we are right at some big support. Lets see if we are able to get a good rally from this trendline to my target 87ish in comming months. When the dollar moves up - the markets does most likely fall, so a sell off would happend then.

The USD is made by columbia - very nice chart indeed and you see that support is 76-77 area, (thats where we were and are around now)

Overall the short term trend did nearly get a BUY signal yesterday as we closed green - but reversed FAST back down with no bounces, a very strong move and rejection - so the sell signals remain on sell and the downtrend remains in a downtrend. As I called before - we should see contra trend rallies to make a lower high - and we did in fact and then we should next see a lower low.

As I stated long time ago - US debt ceiling is a big problem and overall US debt, we have maybe Saudi Arabia comming up next - who knows and oil could see 140$ quick before dropping.

The SPX needs a close above 1323 again - to get me bullish - as long we stay below this level I am veary bearish.

Remember you can follow me on twitter and please write a review in investimonials if you have time - Thank you.

Good luck

Market view

Markets did a backtest of broken support (green trendlines) on Monday - and NASDAQ and Russels pretty much FLAT yesterday, with the SPX and dow jones a little bit higher.

Overall - we need to TURN and reverse DOWN here and now - if not I will get the confirmed buy signal ( mostly above 1330 ) that would be confirmed and the dow jones above this "red downtrend trendline". I still think the correction begun last week and we wont reach new highs - but if my swing trading model gives me a buy signal I will go out of shorts break even or with small profits from 1333-1330 and stay cash for now to wait it out. But overall markets should reverse from this point so what we did was making a lower high, before making a lower low....

So still expect a move below 1300 and to 1250-1270 short term. The dollar is also right now a CRITICAL support zone on weekly chart around here - and IF the dollar wont crash - it should rally big time from here , cause if we break below the dollar could turn out very ugly. The dollar is still right at trendline zone support here and any day from here we could see a major breakout. Here is a great chart from columbia. We are RIGHT at the big trendline(76-77ish) and upside target remains 87ish, but we really need a major rally in the dollar starting up here and not breaking down further....so the dollar should not see BELOW 76 , which is the lowest level from support...right now dollar is trading 76-77, so around here.

I favour a breakout in the dollar to 87ish target next months though and with that a move back in markets sometimes in March below 1200.

Time will tell - if markets wants new highs let it be - I will go cash then and wait out for the next sell signal then, but until then markets needs to breakout above downtrend line and above 1330 and close there.

Its first day of month and markets ALWAYS extreme bullish today on 1st day , so if we follow history and the manipulation going on first day in month - then we could see new highs today.

In Mid east its about to get out of a civil war - Saudi Arabia is getting more attention too - and the Germans have elections this month too , where the Germans wont bailout other PIIGS. Portugal most likely needs a bailout before april - but if Germans wont give bailout and increase fund we will see how markets react. We also have US debt ceiling 4th March (Friday) so they have to come up with a good agreement which markets likes...

My guess is that they raise US debt ceiling another dime ( means no shutdown ) but they may cut spending a lot and surprise most which slows growth. FED Ben Bernanke will speak today and tomorrow and you should expect the unexpected.

Good luck to all