Market view

Markets been moving up slowly the last week everyday with anemic volume with the FED underlying the bid. We are now in the week of mid February where my time analysis tells me that a reversal should take place. We have full moon 18th February and there is a lot of economic data starting from tomorrow (Tuesday). Today markets may just be sideways cause no ecnonomic data and it should be a quiet trading day, but I think the correction should begin sometimes this week as we are now in the time zone mid February.

As stated before - the trend is still up and will REMAIN to be up until the trend changes. So there is really no reason to get a lot bearish before you get the bearish signals in markets, although its imminent that we get a so called flash crash II or heavy selling. I expect the markets will discuss a lot with the debt ceiling this week and the likelyhood of a US default. These events could trigger a massive sell off ( debt )...

Overall other markets like India has been crashing down lately but the US markets is just pushing higher. Looking at the longer term view we are in the end of a long term bearish rising wedge and I expect us to break down below this sometimes this week.

But until SPX 1313-1314 is broken , the trend REMAINS up and the first signal you will get is a push below 1313-1314. This will give us a sell signal in the markets and a short signal, but until then markets may be pushing to 1333(2 x 666 hmm ??).

Have a nice week

Market view

Markets was down by a few points yesterday and it was another slowly day. No important economic data this week , so I guess we wont see much action before next week. But overall what I found very very interesting is on small caps and QQQQ.

There is a 70% chance that the markets already have topped and the long waited correction is about to begin - as indicated before we should begin the correction by mid February , which is around here and next week.

But remember - the short term trend remains UP and bulls have the staff until bears shows up more aggressive. Thats the time when you wanna short markets big time.

So to be more specific - if SPX moves BELOW 1306 area - thats a confirmation that the short term trend have reversed from up to down. I think if we move below 1310 I am going to add some shorts. Watch the small caps - cause if they break down first SPX should follow.

The thing with small caps and QQQQ is that we made a so called BEARISH harami yesterday and if we CLOSE red or go RED today , that would confirm the pattern and reversal.....so today is critical - if we close red or move below the SPX targets - I will add big to shorts. But until then trend is still up.

Best of luck!

Market view

Not much to say - but those charts of QQQQ and SPY should really be screaming SELL SELL to you , as this markets since September is in a bearish rising wedge. A breakdown of this would cause MASSIVE selling very fast. But cause we have no really economic data out this week - we might just be choppy sideways/up on POMO buys and thats what we have seen. But I just say , keep your longs light and be prepared to sell all of your longs as signs showing a reversal - cause a major drop is right around the corner imo. If the timing tools is right we should see the reversal from Mid February and 1-4 weeks from there a very nice big drop. But again as I have been saying the short term trend REMAINS up and then no reason yet to short markets big. Wait for confirmation that the trend has reversed and then short bigtime..

The levels to watch on SPX to the downside is currently 1303-1304 level - so if we see a break below SPX 1303 ( then it will be confirmed ) that the trend has changed and a bigger move to downside is comming. I am going to load up as many shorts I can IF and only IF we get a breakdown below 1303 - until then we might see 1333 ( double 666 since marhc lows??)

Have a nice day and good luck to all

Market view

As expected markets moving higher and no reason to really go heavy short. Though I thought a short term reversal would take place - we might still see the reversal very soon. If we look at the charts we have now fulfilled 5 waves up and on QQQQ and SPX we touched yesterday the upper trendline in the long term bearish rising wedge since September last year. IF and IF we break down of this pattern - this would cause massive selling in markets and we are VERY close to it according to the chart. You can clearly see the range in markets is very tight and a big move is comming. The NYA might have topped here , but if it breaks out it should move to 8500 on chart.

But all in all - the trend REMAINS up........and no reason to go against short term trend before you see a drop below 1300-1303 level. That means dont begin short ( I mean you can short a little - but dont short a lot now before you see CONFIRMATION) and that is the 1300-1303 level. If we break down below this level, that would trigger a short term SELL SIGNAL and markets would begin trending down. Until then trend reamains up and we could see 1330-1350 next.........

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did end near highs of the day friday and we are currently right near a big pivot point resistance at 1313 SPX. Lots of people are thinking that 1313 is a top - and that could fuel markets higher, but again sooner or later we gotta plunge down. A correction is still imminent and the move up looks very weak and seems like markets need some new buyers, other than the FED. Our mechanical model is still on a buy signal and wont get to sell signal before markets dropping below 1297.

Russels seems still like trading in a HS topping pattern with right shoulder bein in - if Russels dosent go higher monday , that would indicate a big fat drop comming early next week. This move up since 2009 low - could also be counted as one big fat triangle where we are getting VERY close to an end....if so markets could still og higher to near 12.500 dow jones - but time will tell. Until now mechanical model is still on buy signal and wont trigger a sell signal before markets getting down below 1297. If you see markets going down monday under SPX 1297 - thats your very first and early sign to short all you can and get out of your longs. Until then I would say still safe to be long.

Notice from March 2009 the volume has been decreasing all the way up through this rally telling that there is not much left before a big drop is comming. I dont know if this is a major top before markets going to new lows - but what I think is a correction is comming to 1180-1220 would be great before moving higher.

Time will tell , lets try to keep it simple and not try guess so much, cause in reality nobody knows where we are heading. The short term trend remains up until SPX 1297 is broke. Until then we might go to 1350 - who knows. The most important is just to follow the short term trend to stay on the right side of the markets.

Have a nice day !

Market view

Keep it simple - the markets continues do drift higher with POMO money , the dollar did get a nice gain yesterday, but POMO was holding the markets up. But whatever , dosent matter , the only thing which matters now is PRICE and only price. That means that the short term trend is UP and will CONTINUE to be up until we get a SELL confirmation. The sell confirmation will be if SPX got below 1294-1295 area , if you see a move below this level, then its time to get out of markets fast , into shorts and hold on, cause then a new downtrend will begin. Until then the trend is up and we will continue to drift higher.

There is a very good possibility that Russels is making an HS pattern , only SPX were very strong , but with other indces lagging a bit. Take a look at Transports , they are leading markets and is way off the highs.

The dollar was higher yesterday as I expected aIstill expect this is beginning of a big move to the upside. The dollar could most likely breakout today... and that would set pressure of stocks and a breakdown and reversal in stocks could be most likely today. Lots of important reports, I think today is a brilliant day for a market reversal. Timell tell , butch the 1294-1295 area, if we reach below here short all you can. Also today is "Day of Departure" in Egypt...could be an awful day down there. Time will tell - people flying into USD safe heaven on this today imho.

Have a nice day and great weekend ! Enjoy

Market view

Markets did not reverse yesterday as I expected - but I'm still expecting a reversal to happend, maybe today or next days before weekend. Overall you just CANT deny that the short term trend is up and until we see weakness - its safe enough to be long. We will get a daily SELL signal in our systems if SPX breaks below 1291 SPX ( so a move below that is the trigger for you to load up on shorts ) cause the short term trend will reverse from up to down at this level. EVERYTHING above 1291 right now points to markets moving higher and we could see 1310-1320 before getting the correction. There is lots of signs I have showing that the reversal will first happend mid February end February, but again if we get the correction earlier - then watch out. The GAME plan for you is to stay long markets as long as we are above 1291 SPX, until then good to play breakout stocks and take a few profits. I think its VERY dangerous to buy and hold for weeks and months now, NO GO....

The dollar looks like bottomed from a wave 2 down - before a BIG wave 3 up rally comming in the dollar. That is in line with a nice correction which should happend when the dollar rallies up, so I'm very bullish the dollar right now, and have been since the bottom in november 2010. Dollar will go higher near term and a big rally is underway and it will happend very soon imho.

But overall short term trend is up and 1291 is to watch for today on the downside, to be more specific looks like we could get last push up to 1310-1320 area before a big reversal, time will tell...

Have a nice day