Sunday, August 14, 2011

Market view



Markets did a minor gap up and closed in green on Friday.

I've added some more TNA at on Friday so I have a full position for a swing trade.

Long 37-38$ and added more friday - where my thesis is that you should buy all the dips we get - cause a minor rally is underway.

All major indexes is on daily buy signals which is also telling me that the short term bottom should be in.

Upside targets for this upcomming rally is a re-test of MA(200) which is 1285 and MA(50) is 1283.

So a good target for this rally is 1280-1290 area probably with an overshoot to test 1300.

Overall I remain long for a swing trade and i'm now ready to play lots of beaten down small caps which can go 50% in a matter of few days.

On daily chart we have a "death cross" where MA(50) crossing below MA(200) which is a very bearish signal longer term.

But from what I've learned in past , the death cross when it happends is a BULLISH signal so the markets should test one of the MA(50) or MA(200) before it falls lower.

Thats why I'm short term bullish for next 1-2 weeks.

The euro still have the potential inverted HS pattern and either a big breakout is underway or a big breakdown in the euro.

The longer term charts on FXE tells me a big breakdown should come - however my shorter timeframes + the chart pattern inverted HS pattern tells me a breakout to 1.5 should come.

If the euro rallies - then the markets is going to follow - so a probably rally to 1.5 in euro with the markets rally could be in the cards.

Sentiment in the markets is still too bearish right now - so either way short term - if we pullback then buy the dip as a bigger rally to 1280-1300 is underway.

Have a nice day and see you all tomorrow on http://premium.nwatrading.com/


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