Market view

Markets did a very nice rally on the news - I got short 1 day or so too early , but thats how it is.

On the day market popped 3-4% I loaded a size swing trade in TVIX at 40.5$ as I still believe markets is about to see a nice reversal to the downside.

When I look at every index and the euro all making a bearish backtest of neckline and called kiss of death - if true markets could start to plunge hard from here - but lets take 1 day at a time.

We wont like to see SPX above 1300 that would be bad for this bearish case.

Overall NYMO is way way way too high and there is often pullbacks.

However I dont think we will see new lows - I'm not sure how low this pullback would get but looking at the euro then its very bearish and telling that new lows in euro may come.

Pullback or bigger correction (I think downside is imminent) and thats why I'm pretty heavy in shorts as I see all those backtests as you see very clear on chart.

In 2008 we made the same with a big rally for thereafter to plunge again weeks after.

All in all - short term trend is UP right now so I'm betting against the trend which I dont like , but I think we could see sell signals pretty soon in markets, time will tell next week.

Conclusion:

Holding all my swing trade shorts and hoping that SPX wont break above 1300 :-)

Have a nice weekend.

Market view - Possible short term top near

I'm calling for today to be a possible "short term - if not longer term top" after I called the bottom at the exact date.

Again people were very bearish early October - and now all turned bullish....

Right now I'm very bearish and has been for last days - still bearish and think we might have made SOME KIND OF TOP today..... again hard to predict to the limit , but when I'm looking at so many charts I see IMPORTANT indexes like TRANSPORTS and SMH and others closing BELOW MA(200) on the daily , XLF backtesting neckline (kiss of death).

So what do we have?
1. XLF is backtesting a neckline from the crash this summer , now backtesting it right at the trendline I've made this summer,, could get nasty from here.
2. Dow jones perfect backtest of neckline too , got all the way up to the neckline and sold off a little bit into close, called kiss of death and usually very bearish after.......
3. SMH CLOSED BELOW weekly MA(50) and closed below DAILY MA(200) again very bearish sign
4. RUT also backtested a neckline or got very close to it... so might also fall down hard.
5. Everything EXTREME overbought right now......
6. FXE euro backtesting and making a KISS OF DEATH of trendline which it broke down off - dollar could rally big from here...

Well all in all - I'm still holding all my shorts and bought a big SWING position in TVIX at 40.5$ today I will hold this one for some time , gonna see what happends next from those levels here over the next days.

IF those charts holds true , then we should sell off hard VERY soon...... either tomorrow or EARLY next week.... time will tell..

All in all - holding shorts tight and staying short for a swing , only new play was long size position TVIX at 40.5$

Have a nice day everyone.

Market view

Markets did another choppy day as I expected and today (Thursday) is the day I expected the debt deal announced and this should be a sell off and sell the news event, and funny enough the euro got exact to my upside target premarket to 1.4$ - lets see if it gets rejected to there.

When I look at the USD/CAD it got all the way down to the "breakout" point which is now support zone at 1 and with this the USD should rip up higher from here with the euro plunging down.

I think that the debt deal will be a big disappointment for markets and there could come lots of critics on it over the near term now which would hurt the markets.

Everything in the debt plan has been "well known" and nothing new to the market - so after I see futures up , actually right now testing my TARGET to upside on dow jones near 12.000 or MA(200) at 11.966 - well right around here , then I think markets will slowly start to fade into US opening and possible if minor gap up - should be a SELL THE NEWS.

I expected today (Thursday) to be the day markets should start to begin the sell off - so lets see how we end today - I wont be bullish as long we hold below MA(200) on the dow jones and 12.000.

In case dow jones breaks ABOVE 12.000 yes , then I'm nervous and might take all my shorts off - but this will be the only place I would do that cause nothing is bullish as long we stay BELOW 12.000.

Both the dollar and the euro is in perfect setup with the euro falling down from resistance here and the dollar going up.

I think the chart I made speaks for themselves.

Conclusion: Remain Long EDZ - TZA - ERY swing trades and think today will be "sell the news" and start of the big plunge in markets over next week or so - there is just nothing to be bullish about before dow jones can break 12.000 - euro can break 1.4 (FXE) and the USD/CAD breaks below 0.98$ with confirmation to braek the 1$ level. So in case we gap up I would load as much shorts I can again - there is simply no reason to get long here.

Long TZA 33$'s EDZ 20$ and ERY low 14's all a bit underwater.

Market view

Not much to say .... SQWIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIZEEEEE ! Man what a week - after going short markets at SPX 1257 area via going long EDZ , TZA and ERY , I've made a fortune just yesterday as markets got smacked down near -2% for the day , what a perfect entry I had !

Hope some people followed me on the trades , now looking very good.

I've got a FULL SELL SIGNAL which means right now you should short the markets - we may have a gap up on Wednesday or so - but this will be a SHORTABLE gap up imho.

I see a very bearish topping hs pattern forming which indicates we are going to see ugliness shortly - that also fits with my thesis that the EU debt plan will DISAPPOINT people more than SURPRISE to the upside - so I guess the trigger for a sell off to start will be the EU debt plan which will come out either today/tomorrow or Friday.

Conclusion:

Got long EDZ 20.3 , TZA low 32 and ERY 14,45 on Monday for swing trades - all up 5-10% already in 1 single day after I took big profits on Monday on my longs - excellent.

So what is downside target ? Well if we BROKE the DOWNTREND from AUGUST at around 1180 on SPX and we gonna BACKTEST this trendline - the target to downside is 1130-1150 - thats pretty long down the road from here ... but just the target on a real backtest, we may have a much smaller pullback , but we take each day and see what happends.

If you wanna follow me you can do it on twitter : Sqwii or come into www.nwatrading.com we have been making a killing in there every single week over the past months since we started, we also had a few loosers but I can tell you , most of the time we had great winners.


Hope to see you there

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did ANOTHER impressive rally and is nearly unstoppable at the moment - we keep rallying higher which is amazing !

I still believe that we are going to see a sharp reversal to the downside when they announce the agreement , which they will possible Thursday or Friday.

After that we could see some big movements to the downside again and thats why I think its good to start up buying shorts.

Actually I did a quite risky play as I sold all my TNA with huge profits from 39.5$ to 47$ area which was very nice profits in just 2 days.

I actually also started the RISKY play - already buying TZA and EDZ at 32$'s and 20.3$ in EDZ - so hopefully we will start to see some sideways/chopy action before possible nice downleg in markets.

I just saw a potential bearish pattern forming + my upside target near reached to the perfect spot - DOW JONES 11.966(MA200) or near 12.000 is my upside , so we came pretty close and therefore I dont think upside is huge from here if anything.

So its a risky play I know yes - but as we also move closer to the debt deal - and I think it will dissapoint - then we might start a leg down pretty soon.

Conclusion:

Took all my profits in TNA from 39.5$ to 47$ with big profits , not flipping 100% upside down and bought EDZ and TZA for potential swing - I think the upside is rather limited here and a test of MA(200) is possible - Russell also tested my upside target which is 737 area , where we closed yesterday,, REMEMBER - I have NO KIND OF SELL signals yet , so this means that we are still on the way up , and therefore a lot more risky play - but I feel that right now is a good time to begin short markets and indeed if we see a trend reversal later this week we will just add more shorts.

Congrats if you followed my plays going long markets heavy at 1080 SPX , selling at 1220 , going short 1230 - selling at 1200 , going long markets 1210 - selling at 1258 , and right now short this area and will add if we move a bit higher OR make a trend reversal soon.

Again if you have made any kind of money on my calls - please donate and thanks for all those kind persons who really donate a little bit , appreciate it.


Have a nice day.

Market view

Wow - what an AMAZING week we got in www.nwatrading.com crew.

We went short markets at 1230 and took profits on shorts near 1200 SPX - then went long at 1210 area and remain long.

What we got on Friday played out as I thought with the bullish inverted hs pattern , which sended the markets to the highs for the past 3-4 months.

My bottom call of 2011 still working out very well.... so what is next to come from here ?

I believe they are going to make a big deal in Europe for this week late this comming week and I think it will be a big deal which would be in agreement from all parts.

However I think that after the deal is announced they will fade the news - which means that maybe the markets has gone a little too far in hope of a big deal.

All in all - I remain long as I got buy signals on Friday on the daily charts on every single index.

The euro FXE broke the MA(50) on the daily chart which is very bullish for euro - and broke a neckline on Friday which have a target of 146 on the FXE in next 1-2 months.

Therefore I believe we have a lot more upside to come in markets - but I think we are getting closer to another short term top - possible late this upcomming week.

But as long markets going up , we will keep riding this baby up and I remain therefore long TNA swing trade at 39.5$ which is already in nice profits.

Conclusion:

I'm long markets from 1210 area after selling shorts near 1200 SPX - my upside target is around 1275 (possible test of MA(200) ) and target for dow jones is 12.000 near term.

After we reach those levels I think we could see a sharp pullback again - but time will tell...

Still believe market bottom for 2011 is in and this is the start of a bigger rally.

Market view

Markets did another nice drop intraday yesterday and went all the way down to 1200 on SPX. As I saw some extreme bullish formations at that level - I took 50% profits on TZA at 41 from 36$ in just 2 single days - when the markets began to move higher over the day I saw more and more that the bullish pattern I saw would most likely play out - therefore I took rest of profits in 38-39 area in TZA where I got all out and actually did the opposite by buying TNA 39.5$ area for a potential swing play.

The thing is - its a bit risky play what I did , cause I dont have ANY KIND OF BUY SIGNALS YET - but if the bullish pattern I see plays out to the upside - then I will get buy signal and then all will be fine and then you should add more.

In case we see SPX break above 1223 area I think you should go long markets heavy as I think we will break above 1230 and potential run to 1275 to test the MA(200).

Conclusion:

All in all - took big profits in 2 days TZA , SOXS - and got into bull TNA 39.5 for a potential swing trade - hopefully we get a breakout soon if the bullish pattern I see plays out. I see a near perfect inverted hs pattern on indexes and on VIX a topping hs pattern which is bearish. IN CASE WE SELL OFF HARD or begin to sell off Friday I will stop out longs and move into shorts for the breakdown of 1200- but for now seems like we will breakout to upside.

Target in case we breakout is SPX 1275 and DOW JONES 12.000 - again as I said this may just be the pullback we were looking for as it does not have to be bigger than 30 SPX point from 1230 to 1200.

Hope you all make some big money - have been fantastic - if now join us in www.nwatrading.com we are making a killing every week in here both in small caps swing trades and investments.

Market view

Markets were very flat and slowly at the start of the day and I accumulated some swing trade shorts in TZA and SOXS - from low 36's in TZA. By the end of the day mkts plunged further down which looked really good to me and the sell signal on all major indexes is still confirmed.

I think this is the pullback we are waiting for and honestly I'm not sure how and where it will end. My 1st target for it is SPX 1170-1180 area - but we might just test 1190 and we might even go to 1130-1140 - so many possibilities - right now just trying to hold my shorts as long the markets is going down and for now looks like more donwside to me.

VIX seems to me like about to breakout and the euro looks like could have a downside target to 1.34-1.35 area before next rally higher - so for now think with more euro downside - the mkts could pullback some more.

After the pullback is done I'm expecting a big rally higher in mkts again to potential 1300+

Right now I see a clearer pattern in the european mkts so I may just follow tohse closer to see when the US mkts will start to turn up too.

Conclusion:

Got TZA low 36's for a potential swing trade and will remain long TZA until the charts tells me otherwise. Already in nice profits as TZA currently is at 38-39 level.

Got some short silver via ZSL at 14$ and already in profits here too as it is near the 15 zone. All my small cap bios rocking hard and went up 10-30% yesterday so amazing gains made.

Join us in www.nwatrading.com we make a killing in there every single week for now and hopefully will continue so. We got puts GMCR at 94$ with a target of 60's area - right now GMCR below 70.

I nailed the bottom in SPX at 1080 on the day and bought long stocks and 3x ETF and sold at 1220 SPX - then shorted mkts at 1225 area for potential pullback. If you made some money with the biggest rally since 2009 and I still think the lows of 2011 is in - then please make a single donation.

Have a nice day - enjoy :-)

Market view

b


Back from my vacation and ready for the markets again.

Markets has lately been quite choppy - both up and down but we ended higher near SPX 1230 yesterday - with many multiple bearish divergences.

Looking at my charts right now - I would think this is an exhaustion run and I think the real pullback to 1170 area is comming soon from here.

The VIX is right now on a buy signal on my daily chart - which suggest that fear could easy come into markets short term. When the VIX is rising the markets is most likely going down - therefore I think there is better chances that markets starting a pullback to below 1200 again near term and possible reach my pullback target at 1170 area.

All major indexes is currently on sell signal but can fast get to buy signal if markets starts to rally further form here - so dont get too confortable getting short yet.

As I called early October for bottom 2011 is in - right now we had an impressive if not one of the best performed rallies in single weeks since march 2009. I called the bottom at SPX 1080 and right now SPX is 1230. I still think bottom of 2011 is in and we are just in the beginning of a new and big rally higher in markets.

However for this week get ready for big price swings - both up and down , which can be hard to trade for many people.

Right now all I can say is that most indexes on sell signals with VIX on buy signals - however if we rally further up with conviction on Wednesday I will most likely get buy signals and then we may touch 1250 area before getting any pullbacks.

But right now I think we are near the end of the "first" leg up in markets from bottom 2011 before the pullback and a pullback could come anyime - we just need some confirmation of reversal as markets still seems quite strong.

By my thesis markets could rally into later this month before we get a correction/pullback - so if we follow my thesis we should remain long until last week this month.

Conclusion:

Right now I'm mostly in many small caps and trading good long setups - have a lot of cash - I'm neither long or short right here. My thesis tells me to stay long until later this month , but charts tells me pullback is due very soon after a possible last push higher.

On the TRAN you see I called the bottom 2011 near the exact date and exact bottom of TRAN. TRAN is currenlty 700 points higher than my call at 4000. If you made some money on my call - please make a donation.

Have a nice day

Market view

Today will be my LAST UPDATE for this week as I'm going on Friday vacation until Wednesday next week - so no updates in this period of time :-)

I hope if you have made money on my calls - please make a donation thank you very much , as I have called the big move dowin in markets since summer 1350 level and calling for a big move up since 1080 on SPX.

A pullback is very much due now imho - and therefore as we kept moving higher and higher - and hit my upside target of 1220-1225 area , I took a short position at 1220 SPX (for a trade).

I wanna remind you - I'm however STILL LONG EDC 3 x bull from 11.75$ but I have a stop loss in place now at 17.5$ which means if we gap down nicely today - then Im taking my profits in EDC - if we dont gap down I will keep holding it until I stop out :-)

I'm still long lots of small caps - but I got a first position in TZA 37.9$ yesterday as a hedge.


Conclusion:

I remain long EDC and small caps - will get stopped out in case we gap down and then I will take major profits in EDC from 11.75$ to today swing trade BIG MONEY MADE for those who went long with me - and if you made money on the upside I would appreciate a donation as I've only got 4 since this summer where I've called the move down from top and the bottom of 2011 for now.

I took a hedge position in TZA 37.9$ and will add if it gaps higher today - if we gap up higher I will possible bail out my TZA trade.

So all in all expecting most likely a pullback but a pullback should be BOUGHT heavy into imo.

Market view

Markets consolidated sideways yesterday and where a quite boring day with stock markets as we closed FLAT......

The thing is , when markets is running higher like we did lately AND we consolidate sideways , this is USUALLY a bullish sign which is continuation pattern before we breakout even higher.

Seems like most bears did NOT catch this rally as I did from 1078 on SPX level and still long the markets until I get sell signals.

Usually markets would pullback after more than 100 points run in SPX - but this can also indicate that what we saw , was THE bottom - (a very STRONG PUSH UP, with no pullback) before later - this means that markets is making the first "leg" higher in a bigger trend up which I think.

So markets is right now in the first move up from the lows 2011 imo before a bigger pullback could occur.

Right now a pullback is imminent still imo - but will we have a push higher ? Or just pullback from here , thats the question.

The 30min and 60min chart both indicates that the pullback should start today ( but did also this yesterday ) so remember - we can stay OVERBOUGHT short term for days before a real pullback comes in.

Bulls are in FULL control as long we stay above 1170-1175 where I think the pullback we will get could go to - the MA(50) which markets broke above lately.

Conclusion:

Not much to say - the same as yesterday - pullback is imminent as we are overbought , would not be surprised with a pullback soon , but sideways consolidation tells me we may push higher before.

All in all - bulls in full control as long SPX holds above MA(50) and 1170-1175 level - no reason to short markets - but just stay long and play the good "long setups".

Some markets out there looks extreme bullish pattern wise on 5 year chart which indicates we might even see new highs and much higher sometimes this year or next year...... so remember ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE - DONT BE SO FOOLED TO LOOK ONLY THAT WE CAN GO DOWN LONGER TERM... ANYTHING POSSIBLE..

I'm not saying we will take out new highs on this rally - but I think there are some chances we will and if not a rally to 1300 area is still a major rally from call at 1078.

I remain long EDC 11.75$ swing trade around SPX 1080 level.


Remember I wont make updates from this Friday and will be back again Wednesday next week as I'm going on vacation in the mountains.

Market view

Wow ! Markets did an extremely nice rally yesterday sqwiiiiiiizing out lots of shorties with a 3.5% rally!!

My EDC swing trade in big green yesterday 3 x emerging markets bull from 11.75$ went up 12-13% yesterday which gavem e some huge gains.

Markets keeps going up like crazy since my bottom call of 2011 at 1078's and after 1 week we are more than 100 SPX points higher near 1200 SPX.

The important thing I wanna tell you about is that indexes broke above and closed above the MA(50) for the first time since july/august which is BULLISH , at 1175.

The VIX for the FIRST TIME since July/August closed BELOW its MA(50) on daily chart too - which suggest that a new trend up might be starting.

Honestly I did not expect such a big rally , but as long I have buy signals and markets looking good I keep holding my long positions....

There is a very good chance we see a pullback and good red day soon as markets is short term very overbought - so a pullback soon would be healthy.

The weekly charts still looks fnatastic imo suggesting more upside is comming.

We broke above a trendline too from the highs in August which is also very bullish imo.

We have a potential pattern target of SPX 1265 as we maybe broke a neckline at 1170 yesterday just to keep in mind.

Conclusion:

Not much to say other than BIG PROFITS MADE for those who got long with me SPX 1078-1080 and EDC 11.75$ swing trade - which is now 16+ 30% made on swing trade already....

Still many good looking small caps I'm long - and the thing is , bulls are in FULL CONTROL as long we stay above 1170 on SPX - no reason at all to get bearish imo

I will be on vacation from after this weekend until mid next week - just telling everyone no updates for 1-3 days next week. If you have made money on this rally I hope you would like to make a donation as this helped you out getting long markets in the right time and not missed a 7-8% rally which many people missed completley.

Remember you can follow me on twitter Sqwii or join www.nwatrading.com where we have made a killing last many months , up and down. We do swing trades/daytrades and investments too.

Hope you enjoy reading the blog and it helps you out trading.

Market view

Markets had a fantastic rally from my bottom call at 1078 where I went long via EDC 11.75$ for a swing trade and ended up this week in major profits. Also sold lots of solar stocks with great gains last week 10-20% and other small cap stocks.

I still remain bullish biases and I still think the lows for 2o11 is in - IN CASE its not in , we gotta have a fat reversal early this week, but I doubt it....

The markets is extreme overbought short term - so a pullback could be in the cards soon - but I think its a buyable dip we will get before higher levels and honestly I see us above 1200 and maybe 1250+ range over the next weeks.

Looking at the weekly charts it suggest that we might start a big rally soon (we already rallied a lot , but I mean above 1200 area.)


We got a bullish piercing pattern on the weekly chart SPY which looks very bullish to me and "bottomed" so still believe the lows are in.

Right now all my daily charts is on full buy signal and as long markets have a buy signal I remain on the bull side. When I get a bear signal , then I might try to short the marktes and take my swing trade profits - but until now markets needs to prove it first.

I've had a bottom date for 2011 at 7th of October 2011 - so this confirms with my view that we have seen the bottom for this year 2011. If not , they need to make a deep fat reversal this comming week and take us lower - but I really doubt it.

For now I think we could see an impressive rally comming next 4-6 months a multimonth rally and who knows how high we go. For now I dont believe that we take out this years highs , but who knows...... bearish sentiment is still very high in this markets and if government is trying to pump lots of money in the banks and system they will inflate us higher.

Conclusion:

Remain long EDC 11.75$ swing trade , in major profits already but looking for more - I think the bottom of 2011 is in most likely , but bears can have a chance IF they show up early this week. If not I believe stocks are cheap now and should be bought. I see a multimonth rally starting from this month October until early next year 2012.

If you wanna daytrade/swingtrade or help with small cap ideas , follow me on twitter Sqwii - or get into www.nwatrading.com our live chat rooms. We have made a killing last many months and our goal is to do this every day , every week.

Market view

o


Not much to say - mkts keeps going up and ended up near 2% yesterday which was amazing - all my solar stocks really ROCKED hard yesterday and all with gains 10-20% - thats quite amazing in a few days gains on so many solars like STP - YGE - JASO and so on.

I added more size EDC at 12.48 yesterday and still holding my 3x bull EDC from 11.85$

This one ran amazing 7% yesterday and already in big profits now - but I really believe there is more leff before we pullback.

How I see the euro (FXE) is a bullish pattern which is about to explode - with this , markets could rally even further.... so not out of question that mkts sees 1160-1180 now.

I remain long from SPX 1078's area and 1085 area with my EDC swing positions - already big profits but more to come imo.

Many signs is that the bottom is in and I will contniue to hold long as long I have buy signals on all my charts.

I called HEV at 0.1$ which is now at 0.36$ around 260% gains from my call in 3-4 days !

You should join up at www.nwatrading.com this is where I'm in live chat room helping out others with small cap picks - daytrades - swing trades and everything.

Conclusion:

I see a bullish pattern in the euro a possible inverted hs pattern which suggest a better rally comming soon - with this I expect mkts to run higher than this. TBT is a big buy and short TVIX is still good - right now still believe that the bottom is in. As long SPX stays ABOVE 1120 now , everything is still bullish. Short term charts overbought so you can expect a pullback soon - but there were just extreme many shorts - so not sure if we just keep going up... time will tell...

I have ran this blog for free in 2 years now and got 2 donations. If you like my charts every day and comments I really would love just to see you be kind and make a single donation - and especially if you have earned money on some of the trades past many months which has been excellent swing trades for 100% gains and 50% gains. Right now EDC up 14% currently in few days.