Market view

Well markets kept going higher very strong the past week and my long positions has done VERY well after my TNA big add position at 78.3 and I am still holding all shares as I think we have more upside in the near term.

Overall - what I am thinking right now is :

1. We might get a new high , not sure though as the bulls should push very hard early this week
2. Bearish sentiment too high - so a very fast push up would be great to vanish the sentiment a bit
3. I think I will start to take some profits in markets if we rally more in the next days ahead , cause I'm up big % wise on my trades like TNA and other small caps.
4. I think we might see a larger correction starting early June...

So this is my thoughts , currently still long - but getting a bit more cautious - also with that in mind that I'm already in nice profits which I am going to take soon if mkts rally higher next week.

Euro should still blast higher as called and the USD pullback imminent (already pulled back a bit )

The thing is - euro broke out of pattern on friday - Russels broke out of downtrend line since highs ( AND ITS LEADING ) which means dow and SPX is going to follow up most likely....

On the first sign I see on good selling pressure I will take profits - until then I remain long.
Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did rally nicely after yesterdays little morning pullback. If you look at TNA or small caps - WOW we just confirmed the bullish engulfing pattern nicely with a big fat green close where we closed right at trendline resistance.

Overall believe the euro is about to head higher and with that - markets should rally further up imho.

It really looks like some kind of bullflag pattern we have been trading in since early May and lets see if we wont breakout above resistance and move higher in the near term.

Today we have holiday and I expect the bulls to take us further up - so time will tell.

I still believe the euro has bottomed and a major rally should be underway either Friday or Monday per the charts , so lets see if the euro cant do a nice rally and with this expect the markets to move up.

Overall still think the small caps can break above the trendline today , just a little move higher in the small caps and we will break the trendline going from the highs , so the downtrend would official be out and a uptrend is in. I still remain heavy long TNA 78.3 and is now 83.66 , already up huge , but holding all as I believe we go higher.

Financials may be a huge buying opportunity soon as we are right around some nice support and they are all very depressed - remember to buy when things are depressed and out of favour.

Follow me on twitter - I called the silver rally and oil rally, and looking for strong commodities rally with metal and mining stocks + steel stocks going in the near term.

Take in mind too that the bearish sentiment has never been this high since August 2010.... and guess what happeneded after August 2010 ? You remember the non stop rally for a multi month high ? Yeah that was it - not betting on a big rally , but at least some more upside before...



Have a nice day

Market view

Markets gapped down and rallied over the day nicely - commodities which I have been bullish out with gold and silver still up nicely since my call late last week.

Silver up 8% from call and oil did a very nice rally yesterday and seems like starting up. Overall commodities looks great and on the run latley.

I think metal and mining companys + steel companies should see some good upside moves in the near term which looks very bullish to me.

TNA (3 x small cap bull ) added 78.3 and closed yesterday at 80.49 made a so called BULLISH ENGULFING pattern - which is a very bullish pattern. IF this is a real reversal - then we should see a green close to confirm upside from here today.

As stated - we needed to see the reversal this week and yesterday we got a nice reversal - still looking for a lot more upside + window dressings into month end at least.

The dollar looks like its still in pullback mode where the euro FXE should rally from here - still very bullish the euro as it looks like it bottomed out - and with a rising euro I bet you markets is going to rally.....

So overall still bullish - very bearish sentiment usually wrong - so a good rally should be in the cards imho.

Watch TNA small caps if we confirm the upside bullish engulfing pattern - looks great here...

Have a nice day

Market view

Been very busy over the weekend and just came back today.

Overall markets been a bit weak lately and $SPX filled a gap right at 1312.5 perfectly.

I think this was what markets has been wanting since early May before a big rally to come and as usual I think Im a bit early in and still remains long SPX 1322.

I think we have some strong upside in the markets this week and early next week so lets see if we cant begin rally soon - silver and all other commodities looks strong to me with silver up 4% today and oil up too.

Overall still looking for new highs , but time will tell how "strong our bounce/rally will be in the near term... with some window dressings included.

We really need to see some strength in markets right NOW this week - if not it may get really ugly in markets , so I expect them to make the markets bounce hard from this area by tomorrow - but again no one is 100% right and I thought we would go up from 1320 level , now we are at 1310's - but lets see if Im a little bit off before the run. It seems like we have been trading in a bull flag since 1370's but we really need to get going very soon.

Still remain heavy long and looking for some short term strength

Have a nice day

Market view

Most bears celebrated a red close today and a sell off last 1 hour of the day - which I think were a classic bear trap by the MM's.

As I have mentioned Thursday , a pullback would target 1330-1333 and I were hoping for this to happend - as we woul get a much better looking inverted HS pattern. Right now it looks brilliant to me - and I read many people is looking for 1250 and there next week with a big drop to come next week, I just dont see it as:

1. We made a clear inverse HS pattern as seen on chart.
2. Bearish sentiment is still a bit too high currently
3. Silver, Oil and Commodities looks bullish to me
4. Someone bought heavu FXE(Euro) on Friday - but MM's dropped it down on low volume and bought on big volume. Who knows if anything good is to come with the euro by Monday.
5. The inverted HS pattern targets 1375 next week - and I still have an objective target to the 78.6% fib retracement at 1381.61 - for sure we could go higher , but this is just an important fib from 2007 top to 2009 low which I think we will reach.
6. FXE euro closed right at trendline ready to blast higher
7. All indexes closed ABOVE big support areas : DOW : 12.500 , NASDAQ : 2800 , SPX 1330 (all bullish closes)

Either way monday will be telling cause if we break below support at 1325 - we could see some heavy selling - but as long we stay above this level ( also on a possible gap down monday ) then the bulls are in charge to new highs.

Good luck and have a nice weekend

Market view

Markets up for another day , and my longs in TNA just working brilliant and longs from SPX 1322 too.

We got an intraday pullback and I were hoping for some more pullback to happend , but markets looks just so strong and every dip looks like getting bought lately which is really bullish.

The euro still moving higher as expected and called and I'm looking at least for 144-144.5 on the euro FXE, which means markets should move higher still...

Looking back from March 2009 I found out that markets bounced from the trendline since 2009 lows - which it has done in the bottom of 2010 - bottom in february and seems like bottom in may bounced from it again - if we take this trendline out , I believe we are going to see a bigger correction comming , but for now seems bullish still with an objective target of 1381.51.

The longer we remain sideways in the consolidation phase , the more we boom to the upside , as the trendline from the recents tops will be at a higher level each day... so the upside will big higher in that way , so actually its a good sign that markets have had a pullback.

Remember - there IS a possibility we get a pullback soon before we take off higher next week with some window dressing to begin end of month - but time will tell.
On the very short timeframe markets were in a pennant pattern - which could either breakout or breakdown - so really no clue if we do a breakout of breakdown - but the euro chart looks so bullish to me , which indicates a breakout most likely, but a pullback would make the inverted HS pattern look a lot better too... time will tell us

Either way - I remain heavy long and expecting higher levels to come - a little pullback or not , but if we see a pullback I would like to see markets hold above 1328-1333.



Have a nice day !

Market view

What a sweet rally of Tuesdays lows - markets openeded flat and kept rallying up all day long strongly. The big size TNA positions I bought at 79.7 are up huge already , and I'm holding all at the moment. The euro moved up a little bit as expected and the USD pulled back a bit. To me the euro chart looks extreme bullish and I see FXE move to 144 in the short term target, which is a bit higher from here. If so - markets should follow to the upside.

I remain heavy long SPX at 1322 and my objective target is precicsely 1381.51 which is a 78.6% fibonacci retracement since 2009 bottom and 2007 top. This fits very well with my objective target and I think we should reach this level before a bigger correction comming.

The 30 min and 60 min charts all overbought indicating we should see a short term pullback - the move up yesterday in markets seems similar to the move down in markets - so who knows if we will make an identical setup as some days ago.

SPX broke above the down trend line which is major bullish - and we might pullback in the near term to test that line around 1332.5 on SPX - if we do this , I would expect another rally to 1350 - but who knows, we might also just keep grinding up on low volume like we have seen so many times before over the last 6 months......

So I keep holding my longs and wont bail out - unless we drift a lot lower.

My analysis tells me that this move is the start of a bigger leg up to new highs with target 1381.51.

The euro looks extreme bullish to me at the moment - and I mean that this could pop hard with financials. Financials looks great to run to the upside soon and may help markets moving up a lot more in the near term.

As called in AAPL - it hit trendline and bounced nicely and made a bullish morning start - which means a possible good bottom is in and should run higher. Earnings 20th May....


FXE have a near term target with the inverse HS pattern on 5 day chart to 144-144.5 area - which is in line with a bigger HS pattern on the euro - who knows if we stop there or keep running - time will tell , but thats at least my short term target.

Just some thought on FTSE the English index - might be a big fat inverse HS pattern - I hope not , cause if thats right we may have a major rally to 1420-1450 , but just a thought as it lines really good up.

As the sentiment went heavy bearish over last 2 weeks I think we have enough fuel to rally the markets up a lot near term - and shorts really got trapped yesterday.

Lets see how the near future looks like.

Have a nice day

Market view

Markets did gap down a little and then moved down to 1319-1320 , which were more than I were expecting... but overall I bought the dip yesterday and added size longs at 1322 SPX as I think it was a brilliant buying opportunity - at least for the short term.

There are many reasons why:

1. We tested the MA(50) and found buyers
2. Markets oversold - we are at a point where the bottom should be found
3. Bearish sentiment been increasing a lot last 2 weeks - gives more fuel for the bulls
4. The euro to me looks like hit a short term bottom at 140 FXE - and I think it will rally soon ( therefore markets should move higher )
5. Dollar UUP looks bearish to me in the short term according to daily charts - so dollar should have a pullback.
6. NDX Nasdaq and QQQ got down to its trendline support - or very very close... bounced from there....
7. Dow made a red hammer (possible reversal pattern)
8. Lots of indexes made a hollow red candle pattern , usually a bottom.

Overall bought size TNA again after selling a lot in the 87 but still holding 82 some , and added big again at 79,6 TNA-at least for the short term...

My obj target for SPX remains 1380 now and if the bottom were not in- then I think we are really close as they may fill the gap we have on SPX around 1310-1315.

Banks (KBE) ended up 1.6% and confirmed the buy signal I had 2 days ago with the bullish harami pattern - you can play FAS (3x long financials) which also looks good here.


I'm not at my own computer so cant make my charts via my charting software today.

Market view

Markets dropped a little more - especially weakness in the Nasdaq which lead the markets down. But remember tech and nasdaq stocks has been the strongest when we moved up - which is why they also gives big hits when we move down like we saw yesterday. From what I know the sentiment is getting extreme bearish at the moment - AAI sentiment from last week gained 3.6% bears and lost -4.7% bulls, now we have more bears than bulls , which is a good sign for some fuel to get markets going again.


Sentimenttrader also have a lot of pessimism in the short term , which means usually a short term bottom is near - that also stand by what I am thinking. If you take a look at the DOW - it was only down -0.4% , nothing biggie , and we are STILL above KEY support at 12.500 - NO reason at all to get bearish as long dow jones holds above this area. We could test it at 12.500 and then make a big rally to 13.000 - but we may also rally from this point.

I think time wise I've had a target for the rally to begin by Mid may until end of June - so if we are going to rally - we should start going THIS week or very soon... so be prepared - I'm fully long markets and added SPX 1329 range.

If you look at the dollar and euro - the euro made a bullish harami pattern and dollar made a bearish harami - which both makes me confident that euro is going to rally soon and dollar going to pullback - which means markets is going higher !

If we take a look at XLF - financials broke out big and then have been trending down with a bullish MACD divergence indicating a good rally is to be expecting in the financials too. KBE (Banks) made a inverted hammer which is a reversal bar so lets see if financials starts to rally very soon , thats what I am thinking. A good way to play it is FAS which is 27.63 currently (it might see 34+ next )

Everyone also talked about AAPL going down so much - well nothing to worry about yet - AAPL was overbought and broke down of a base going down to long term support around 332-333 lets see if this doesent hold... Lots of other bullish signs with PBR and CLF making bullish reversal patterns too - everything lining up for a good rally to come, just ignore the news and follow and read the charts.


Overall my objective target is still 1380 on SPX and 13.000 on DOW Jones next - so buy the dips as long as 12.500 holds on dow jones. As you know I was calling for this pullback when everyone was bullish at 1360-1370 and I had a target of 1325-1330 , we are here now and my analysis and timing tool says we are going to rally to 1380 next over next weeks.



Have a nice day

Market view

Blogger has been down for the whole day yesterday - so I could not make an update.

Here comes the weekend update !

Overall markets is still in sideways/down correction from 1370 and I still believe we are going to see a massive rally soon. I've bought the dip this Friday at 1336 as I believe this was a must before we should do a nice rally. The things I like is that over the past 2 weeks we got some more fear into markets - but overall the markets has been held up nicely and consolidated.

As I told people late April - I was expecting a pullback in first half of May - so now we are here after 1370 we have seen a nice pullback - and very choppy action up and down. I still stand by we are going to see a rally in the second half of May and reach new highs in the mkts - my objective target is 1380 - but if the inverse HS pattern is going to play out we should see 1420-1430.... which I feel very unconfortable with - but who knows.... might be a last monster rally before they pull the plug - we have still POMO schedule going on until June....

For some reasons my charting program does not work - so I have a chart this time from Trading Markets - which indicates where we are right now...

If we take a look at the SPY and the DOW JONES - we are RIGHT at the trendline from 1250 lows - april lows and now here.......

The question remains - do we bounce from here and get another rally or do we have a major breakdown next week - as you can see there are 2 possibilities and a major move up or down should come next week.... I stand by we rally , but thats just my oppinion here - no one is right every time..

Well as I have been saying - I'm still long TNA 82.7 and added few yesterday - as long SPX stays above 1325 - mkts are HEALTHY and new highs is to be expected - if we breakdown below this level on Monday - yes then we are probably going for a bigger correction. But my analysis tells me - that we should begin to rally to new highs from here very soon - and this level is a perfect SPOT to rally from......imho.

So I remain long SPX 1330 area again after the pullback we got and TNA 82.7 and lets see what happends next week. Objective target is 1380 now - and may be raised higher depends on how strong this markets rally.

I called the dollar bottom and since then we had a nice rally - I expect the dollar to pullback from here at least - but the weekly chart looks great on the dollar... so thats why there IS a possibility it keeps rallying , but looks like it needs a breather.

So HOW DO YOU PLAY THE MARKETS ?

I would stay long here - buy the dips - also if we gap down to 1330 Monday - but will stop out if we get below 1325 with heavy volume - but there is a good possibility we could gap down and then run on monday too - until then your reward could be huge if you stay long and we start rally soon. If Elliott Wave means anything - then we should see the last impulsive rally starting soon to make the last high before we are going down a lot more....

Have a nice weekend and enjoy - if you wanna play some small caps follow me on twitter - I've had amazing winners like - OXGN , ABIO , DSCO , VRML , which has been up more than 50% all of them lately.

I've added GMXR and GMR this week for long term account as I think those 2 plays are serious undervalued and a great reward will come. (Chart GMXR good play now inverse HS pattern - should rally big from here )

Market view

Cautious ! This is what I can say at the moment. We are in a time where there could be a big trend change and mkts could end up getting quite nasty - or mkts could keep going up in a massive rally soon. So what is to come ?

I wanna try to look at both sides of the trade and tell you my personal view of both POSITIVE and NEGATIVE things about the markets currently.

Positive: The BULLISH signs for the markets now is that

1. Many people turning bearish at the moment - giving more fuel to the fire to move up......
2. We still have POMO all the way to June.....
3. We are still in a period per astrology signs that more upside is comming until June (PER MOONS and CYCLES ) we have an eclipse new moon 1st June which may change everything by market psychology
4. We have a so called INVERSE head and shoulders pattern formed on SPY - Dow jones - usually tracking dow jones works better and if the inverse HS pattern holds true - we broke out of neckline and should backtest it at 12.475-12.500 range. IF THIS LINE HOLDS - major rally may come... if not - BEARISH.

Negative: The negative things is that if I am looking at the WEEKLY charts on IWM and TZA - it tells me that a monster breakout may be in the making with TZA (looks like about to break downtrend). TZA made a bullish engulfing pattern on the weekly charts which is pretty bullish I must say - but as you see TZA been plunging too with oversold levels for HALF A YEAR - so no reason that we can stay in this range longer..... but just some thoughts...

The OEX put/ratio is tooo damn ugly right now - previous times this high... were in 2007.

Another bearish sign for the markets is the dollar. Well the dollar is right now at MA(50) but the weekly chart suggest it may go way higher and possible start of a new trend up...

Time will tell its hard to say - but if its the beginning of a new trend up for the dollar - then the markets is going to trend DOWN.... which is bearish for stocks.

So the WEEKLY chart for the dollar looks quite bullish I must say. So overall the most bearish signs for markets is imo that the weekly chart looks great on dollar and TZA...

So overall quite neutral right now - mkts may hit dow jones neckline at 12.475-12.500 and as called yesterday a PULLBACK were DUE and we got it yesterday....... Now it would look most perfect if the dow could touch this neckline and then bounce hard of here to reach 13.000 next.

If dow jones breaks below this neckline I am going to say that the bears have the ball and it could turn out very ugly...... all imho

So right now SPX may still have to touch a trendline near 1327-1330 currently - if this does not hold - bearish imo.... if we hold above then we may see 1380-1400 next.

All in all keep a close watch on the markets near term....

Have a nice day

Market view

i

Markets moving higher nicely yesterday and we confirmed the bullish MACD histogram bar yesterday with another move up.

Right now it looks bullish and it does not seem that we will test the 1325 range on SPX - either way right now the 60 min chart and 30 min chart on SPX is overbought a lot short term - which means to expect some SHORT TERM WEAKNESS.


My objective target is 1380 and to new highs - but a pullback should at least occur before... IF THIS is a inverse HS pattern we have been setting up - well then markets have a target of 1420-1450 on SPX - which I think is pretty high and I dont feel comfortable with these targets....

The objective target for a wave 5 up is 1380 still and mkts are in full buy mode at the moment on daily charts....

TNA as I called at 82.7 is now trading at 91.5 - what a BIG GAINER last days......and congrats to people who loaded with me. I sold a few just to take some profits because I were up nicely - but still holding a lot TNA. How nice is it to first ride TZA up in first week of May - sell it and go reverse and buy TNA and ride it up - lovely. Silver also up a lot since call last week and still moving - first we made money on short silver at 50$ and then long thursday and friday last week.

Overall I expect a new high to come and I'm playing lots of good small cap plays - follow me on twitter if you wanna play some higher % gainers possible.

Have a nice day