Market view

Well still choppy sideways and nothing happening. For now the only stocks which are moving are the small caps which is running most when markets flat like this...

I am expecting a BIG move to come , most likely today and I think it will be to the downside. Financials weak and leading markets, but SPX may get last gap up push to the blue trendline, but again we have POMO day, so not sure if we rally, but with Bernanke talking today we might just tank on him...

I am still heavy short and no reason to cover here, great spot to add.

October comming and it will be a RED RED October...

Have a nice day

Market view

Nothing new really - markets really choppy up and down, POMO in play and HFT machines in play with markets having a very low volume. We saw AAPL and other stocks with flash crashes intraday.......well if AAPL got a flash crash dont you think MANIPULATION ?? AAPL is one of the most liquid stocks in US and if that can have a flash crash the whole markets can EASY have one too...... Remember I went bullish markets since the break at 1065 and rode markets up to 1120-1130, then I took profits and began to short... markets have really just been CHOPPY and SLOWLY creeping up since there. We are 20-30 points higher now in SP500 over like 2-3 weeks nearly and that is nothing. THESE 20-30 points in SP500 can be taken out in 1 single day and thats why I stay BEARISH cause NOTHING is getting bullish here other than POMO buying, and everyone now think its a win win situation, cause when FED pumping up markets, well whats the downside ? There is no one ? Recession is over, hallelujah ! .... No we are about to get the most violent crash and I dont know what the trigger will be, maybe they are juicing markets up cause window dressing and then start October will be a completley disaster, but I will be on the good site and STAY short, I am a bit underwater now, but been adding on the way up. Remember not to go ALL IN shorts, but always have some cash.

Conclusion:

Markets can roll over ANYTIME and it could be in a big flash crash, October will most likely be a disaster.

SPX target 942 in 1 month or 2-3 weeks from here....DISASTER.

From Smart Money.

"Smart Money Buying Huge Put Options for Another “Stock Market Crash 2010″? Charts Options Trading SPX Strategies Live 1100 Oct Put Option Huge Trade ETFs SSO, SDS, SPXU & SPY 63k traded. September because of the amount of short interest was at least 2 to 3 times above its normal amount. The back door shows 63k contracts purchased on the 1100 Oct Put. Large institutional traders are making bearish bets. They’re looking for a “Red October” and a “1987 Stock Market Crash” type move based on the money currently traded at the 1100 & 1120 Strike Price. You don’t see this kind of volume traded unless there is a huge move around the corner. Once the shorts are squeezed out of these markets there is one big drop coming on the S&P 500 and that markets are going down. We know exactly that these contracts were at and we bought them at on light volume. You don’t see this type of volume traded unless there is something coming. We’ll be looking at the earnings cycle which is over on the top end. This post election rally that everyone is looking for is already priced in. Know when to buy the rumor but more importantly know when to sell the news.

The trigger ? Well there is so much we dont know which is really bad and they are trying to cover it up so we wont panic, but things will come out slowly , maybe a war ? Currency war, world war ? Terrorism ? I dont know.. but BAD things is about to come.

Markets going to new highs ? NO way I will bet my whole portfolio that we dont see new highs on this rally, we are just on the edge before falling down from a cliff. Look at financials yourself.. they arent rallying and if the FINANCIALS wont follow, we wont rally. This is all a suckers rally!

Have a nice day

Market view

Well , very bearish into close yesterday. Still looking for a market sell off to begin nothing new here.... expecting a big sell off when it first starts, until then POMO day today and Thursday and only THAT may hold markets up ? Who knows... I got HAFC 1.27 , GLCH 1.61 and SNSS 0.4 for a short term trade.

All in all still holding major short positions via TZA and I am still holding , because I know I will be in some big profits 1 month from here, so no reason to sell here. Lots of bearish signals, very overextended here, MACD ticking down to zero line, pure bear flag with declining volume..

Have a nice day !

Market view

Well - POMO got in action again Friday and we got a nice rally on Friday. Lots of people talking about the inverse HS pattern , but I dont believe in this one, also cause the volume on breakout is no biggie... I still believe we are about to make a major top here and we should get a nice crash or hard sell off soon. I'm still short and underwater, but for a swing play I can just hold , cause when we go down with volume it will be fast.

We are very very overbought and VIX on weekly too is very oversold setting up in a falling wedge so could go soon. We have a weekly bullish divergence in VIX and daily chart in a falling wedge, so if VIX will go down few more % before it will rally 10-20-30% ? we will see

Well we may go to test the 1170-1180 now if we take out 1150 SPX , thats the next resistance before the flash crash happended.

But overall too dangerous to go long here , I still believe this is the right shoulder forming in a big complex HS pattern and when we go down next time should take us to 942 imo.

We will probably touch again the downtrend from the highs 2007 and highs april 2010 and we will hit that trendline again, to confirm another move down. (You can see on charts we are at the big trendline now - SPX lagging a bit but reaching it soon.) It will be interesting to see how it plays out...I'm looking for a bear flag..

Thats also cause volume over last months is decreasing telling us this rally is weak and not bullish.

But all in all - still bearish and staying short, this rally is for fools and perma bulls going long and happy now.

Market view

Well - not much to say, we are slowly getting lower and I think the crash will begin slowly and then acceleration will come into selling pressure. Fear is breaking out ( VIX ) on weekly chart, you can feel that fear is comming back and it can go SO quick..... still major short and expecting a BIG move down over next 3 weeks into mid October.

Time will tell , but I cant see ANY bullish signs here, IF I should be really bullish I would have a pullback to 1090 area before another rally, but I cant see it , I'm sorry permabulls..

Be prepared for another major downturn here and be prepared to load up some insane undervalued stocks when time is in to load up, thats how you make easy 100% gainers like OSBC , CNST and other ones...

Still looking for SPX 942 over next 3 weeks.

Have a nice day hope you still enjoy my blog !

Market view

Not much to say, still waiting for the crash to come - I think we will see a turn very soon and it will get fast...

There is a LOONG way down this time and my target SPX is still 942 , I'm full hedged with shorts so I am prepared...

VIX weekly chart about to breakout, daily chart about to breakout and markets about to breakdown. I will begin to take a position in the dollar , sentiment very low and looks like a possible bottom. Euro is overdone here.

TNX is the code for US treasuries' 10-year yield. When it is moving down, it signifies trouble ahead.
Lower rates tend to mean economic contraction & deflation.

TNX is very low and near the March lows, markets going to follow in next 1 month imo.

Have a nice day !

Market view

We had FOMC and we got VOLUME back into markets after the FOMC. We also got a nice pop right after to lock in last retailers and then sold off...

I'm expecting that SPX 1148 was the major top and we are going to have a sell off to 942 SPX a very ugly one over next 1 month.....

Be prepared, I'm loaded heavy with shorts and I am VERY VERY bearish at this moment. There is no reason at all to get bullish now....

The VIX is getting VERY close to breakout of falling wedge and the markets will fall down off a cliff. Dont know if it will happend today, but it will be very soon... in this week I expect a big sell off beginning and will last over next few weeks.

Have a nice day everyone

Market view

POMO !!

Wow, what can I say, with no serious data yesterday they could use it for a nice POMO day, perfect manipulation to the upside , and then they call recession over, so all retailers can suck in this rally.... ouch I feel so bad for all the retailers who just follow the officials when they say recession is over. I havent really seen for a long long time, markets rallied so many days in a row and I am pretty sure when the momentum goes away(which it could today with serious economic numbers, FOMC) then we have a possible flash crash setting up or some serious serious change in direction. I am STILL short SPX 1122, and yes it does hurt a bit and I'm underwater, but as fast as we move up we can crash down, remember the markets takes the stairs up and elevator down....

There are so many negative divergences and everything telling me we should go down, but when FED is manipulating the markets there isnt much to do really, so can they still do it ? Yes , and they will, but they have never did it before for a long while before a big plunge...

So I am still short and underwater with my TZA, but holding strong.

We might get a gap up today but I FOMC will change a lot things today, biggest event, watch it. Rate decision today...they called recession over yesterday ? Why did they do it exactly one day before FOMC ? Well.. if they are going to increase rates just a little bit.... then we have a big crash.

VIX is still in the pattern and didnt really fall down on yesterdays move, just telling me that they are REALLY manipulating and shorts where covering...

My target SPX is still 942 in next 3-4 weeks(still expecting a nice crash comming) Look at the chart above from 1930 crash , looks like perfect like today... we are at the number of 8 now..

Have a nice day

Market view

Wow, what a slowly slowly and BORING week, cause of triple option expiration friday. Finally its over and they wont manipulate markets up more(not in the manner that they have done last weeks). Its over with all the option expirations and next week should be a BLODDY week according to charts. Everything is setting up more and more bearish everyday I look, and I am quite confident with a SPX target of 942 over next 3 weeks...

We will see but this looks VERY bearish for markets here and VERY bullish for the VIX. VIX is about to breakout above WEEKLY falling wedge, flash crash comming ? Probably... but a big move down comming and thats why I'm HEAVY short 1122 and staying short...

MACD ticking down on histogram on the SPX and very overbought with a TRIPLE bearish MACD divergence. So if timing is right we should roll over big time next week and I found out that why they holded markets up this time was cause of option expiration like all the other times..... Now they can finally plung the markets, bullish sentiment VERY high and so many gaps to fill so no support below us now, perfect to a crash comming...

My target short term still 1070-1080 and will see if it holds, but right now I dont think so... I think 942 is the next level to look for...

Have a nice weekend !

Market view

Just a quick update today cause its my birthday and will be off today.

There is NO reason at all to get bullish and all my daily chart signals are giving my flashing SELL signals. They are trying to sqwiize rest of shorts out before let the markets plunge. You can clearly see intraday they are manipulating markets higher and there is a underlying bid which is the FED. If you look at the money outflow for last months, posted on zerohedge you can see that there has been money OUTFLOW for the last months. But again if you can go up with the FED its brilliant, but dont be screwed because they cant manipulate for a long time, suddendly the baloon will be too big and the be busted.

I had long positions since 1065 SPX and shorted major at 1122 and I am STILL short, a bit underwater now, but that can change in 1 day..... if we move up to 1130+ let it be... the setup here is brilliant for another kind of flash crash so I am looking for a big move down short term and just waiting for markets to roll over. VIX chart telling me a big breakout comming on the weekly, so sometimes in the next 1-4 weeks, watch and see the markets falling off a cliff.....

DOJI, spinning tops, haning man candles and so reversal candles telling me that we are about to rollover with VERY overbought territory here and MACD ticking down to negative, volume decreasing and bulls out of bullets here...

Short term target still 1070-1080, and if that breaks, see you at 942. Still major short for a swing trade and this week we have just been moving SIDEWAYS, choppy trading.

But sooner or later , I think after option expiration , we are going to have a BIG FAT move down... probably beginning today...(According to the AAI, the "net" bullish sentiment jumped to a whopping 50.9% from just 20.7% a month ago, while bears plunged from 49.5% to 24.2% over the same period.)

From Trading the odds.

"

Friday, September 17, will be ‘Triple Witching‘ (stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the 3rd Friday of March, June, September and December of every year).

This time I’ll not check for the market’s historical performance on option expiration – especially September’s triple witching – , but what regularly happened the week thereafter, which is – promised – much more interesting.

Table I below shows September’s historical option expiration dates (‘Trigger Date‘, since 1990) and the SPY‘s (S&P 500 SPDR.) respective performance over the course of the then following 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 and 5 sessions, assumed one went long on close of September’s triple witching session in the past (like this time on close of Friday, September 17). f history gives guidance, Friday’s (triple witching) close might provide a favorable short- and intermediate term opportunity on the short side of the market. Historical probabilites (19 out of 20 occurrences with a lower close 1, 2 or 3 session later) and odds (the SPY was trading lower at least -1.0% 3 sessions later on 8 out of those 20 occurrences) are heavily lopsided in favor of the downside during the week immediately following September’s triple witching."

Just name me 1 good US economy news.....
don't tell me its "better than analysts expectations "

Unemployment rate Up to 9.6% .
Every week 450,000 Americans lost their jobs .
Inflation Up 0.4% .
Retail sales down .
Car sales down .
House starts down .
Manufacturing slows to 4.4% , slowest in 2 years .
Foreclosures Rise .
Repossessions Set Record .
Gold all time high .
Europe countries still in default risk .
Japan and China forcing US$ up .

Have a nice day

Market view

Nothing new really, the FED and PPT is using their POMO days like we saw lately they try holding markets up, but in the end it will FAIL. They can't beat all the investors with their POMO and suddendly when time is in with this manipulation they do, we will roll over and it will be HARD imo.

I am just waiting for markets to roll over big time and IF I see some heavy volume behin this, I can easy see a big PLUNGE down to 942 SPX, if confirmed with nice selling volume. But until now I havent seen any sell off yet, but this is just what I am predicting a big sell off to occur soon. All technicals telling me that we are just about to roll over. Look at the VIX it was up 2+% with markets up, telling me fear is getting back and FED manipulating markets here in triple option expiration week.

Well well, I am still HEAVY short SPX 1122 and underwater now with my TZA avg 30.2. But in a few days this should be fine, I wont be long markets here before the big sell off....

Today we get some heavy data and tomorrow, so there is a good catalyst to have a nice sell off today.

Short term BEARISH - long term BEARISH. Shorts is king here...

Market view

Nothing really new here, last day we had a gap up and a sideways day with heavy sell off into close. I still think at this levet its a gift to be short...I'm only short since SPX 1122 and holding for a major swing. I think we will see at least 1070-1080 short term, and if we get the bounce from here, we may go higher, but if I see some heavy sell volume next days we might be in wave 3 and that could end near 942 SPX..... so long way down.

I believe the second scenario that 942 is on the way now...timing is perfect.

In 2008 we got the crash from 19. september , so are we repeating history ? time will tell if we start to sell off later this week or next ...

But the upside remains WEAK and the short site here looks great. So not much to say, short term BEARISH and long term BEARISH.

Have a nice day

Market view

Monday we got a nice pop in the morning so for the bulls it was quite good. I managed to sell all my long positions and jump a lot more into shorts. I got loaded a nice chunck TZA at 30 when SPX was 1122. So I'm looking for a major swing lower from here. The first starter position in TZA were on Friday where I scaled into some TZA, so right now I am underwater... but I believe we are VERY near the top. Today we have retail sales and other numbers comming out, volume to the upside is still weak and if the big boys is showing up, we could very fast go down. Tuesdays havent either been really bullish in the past, everytime we dropped a lot in 1 day , turnaround tuesdays have been a day where this has happended. So probably if we get some bad news premarket, markets could gap down huge and plunge from here.

I have lots of negative divergences in markets showing me a decline IS comming soon.....

Very short term I'm looking at least for a pullback to 1070-1080 SPX , so if we wont get the crash I am looking for, then we should have a pullback to this area BEFORE mover higher. So either way it shows me that its best to me short here.

So I'm major short for SPX 1122 and believe we are about to move lower, time will tell.

Have a nice day

Market view

Well - we had a 7% rally here in September, which is VERY unnormal for such a bad month based on statistics. I collected a lot of TZA for a major swing friday and for today monday it looks like we will gap up higher. SPX MA(200) is near 1115 and we have another big resistance at 1120-1130, so I think today is one of the best opportunities to get some more shorts for a major swing down in the markets. I'm going to add to my TZA position at the opening or an hour after markets opened, will see if we break 1115 SPX and move to 1125 level. Last time in early August I rode the markets down with shorts from 1125 SPX to 1065 where I covered my short positions and got lots of small caps, for now I'm taking profits from 1065 SPX to 1110->1130 level and going to add to major short down again.

I am getting VERY bearish at this moment and I'm going to take rest of profits in other stocks. OXGN had great news today and might be a big runner for today.

I can see lots of negative divergences in the markets and looks like we are in a bearish rising wedge.

I dont believe the upside is good from this level and therefore I am going to stick to my major short position and better stay out of stocks. I still have a few stocks, but sold most, have OXGN, OPXT YMI and so.

I think after this move up we had we are about to get a much bigger move down again and all the gains from September will be completely destroyed. The next move should take us down to 942 my SPX target and probably 900 sometimes in October. So remember its a major short swing trade I take here and will add more as mentioned on twitter that I would add if we move higher. Always a good strategy if you think we are at top, begin adding a short position and if we then move a bit higher then add some more. We are getting very overbought too.

Have a nice day !

Market view

Will make a short update.

Yesterday I took much of my profits in small caps, but still holding a few including NIV, OPXT, UWBK and HQS.

I think markets looks very toppy and got a major position in TZA at 32.18 for a starter. I am going to add more TZA if the markets going higher, but for now looks like a sweet entry. We made it to my target 1110 SPX and hit target, but didnt get above.

For now I am quite neutral markets, I think its a good time to raise cash because we are getting overbought a lot here and I think the markets could get very fast down again , with Q3 GDP numbers comming out late this month.

So for now, I am leaning more to the bearish side than bullish and I think the upside in SPX for now is pretty limited. But lets see, we could see a surprise to 1130 SPX , but I will just add more shorts IF we do........

Have a nice day !

Market view

Well yesterday was a great day for bulls at least, we went up near 1% but then fell down a bit, it still looks like we are in a consolidation phase last days and a bull flag where we should breakout to the upside today. We can also see an inverse HS pattern in this bull flag pattern over the last days, so a inverse HS pattern or bull flag, call it what you want, both points to higher levels comming.

But by the way I did actually scale into very very small positions in TZA, just to get a starter for the major swing trade in shorts. I believe the next move down in markets is like a crash type and it could come any day, so better starting collecting shorts than trying picking the exactly top in markets. But I still believe we are moving higher and I see 1110+ SPX short term, probably 1130-1140 , but nothing is for sure. I'm still bullish markets and long lots of small caps.

TZA is having a bullish divergenec which seems like markets have more off a pullback in the cards, but time will tell.

So the conconlusion is , that I'm still bullish, and been bullish since SPX 1065 where I covered my shorts and loaded up on small caps, and I'm still holding small caps, but have been taken some profits in some too.

I'm still holding:
HQS(WAY to cheap by fundamentals, should see 5-10$ in the longer term)
IKAN(Also little bargain, could easy see 2+)
NIV(New position, fundamentals screaming buy to me and chart on bottom)
YMI ( breakout play, looks like some bigger news comming - was news today but didnt move a lot )
OXGN ( waiting for a PR due this week , should explode )
FORM - from 7$ , still cheap
UWBK ( little bank , waiting to explode )

So no reason to take profits in them yet, as markets should go higher and these bargains should be a lot quicker to move up than overall markets.

Have a nice day

Market view

Not much to say - I'm still bullish short term and bearish long term, with a short term target around 1110+ SPX. If we break around this level we may shoot up to 1130 SPX and IF we break that level 1140-1150 comming. So not much to say , I think monday was a consolidation phase , because markets up 5% last week and down -1% is healthy. Its not healthy if we just shoot up without any pullbacks. Then we should go very fast back down again. But yesterday was not really bearish and bears was weak after such a big rally. I think we will get another rally short term to test 1110 probably 1130. I'm still holding my small caps. Yesterdays big mover was OSBC - up near 20%. Still holding for more.

For today looks like a possible gap down and then rally, lets see what today brings.

Market view

Well , what an amazing week, we just shooted up huge from the break of downtrend. Most of me small caps running hard and some are just starting up - sold some CPE with more than 10% in 2 days. It looks to me like markets is VERY overbought short term and we might get a pullback according to the charts, but again we have NO economic data out tuesday and after labour day they may just run the markets higher cause we got a strong close friday. So markets will probably go to 1110+ SPX on tuesday, but after that I am going to scale into few short positions, just for a starter. My target is near 1130+ SPX near term just to make all shorts nervous and thats the time when I am going to load my boat with shorts. There is a great possibility if we break the trendline from april highs (Russels already did...) then we might have a chance to see SPX 1130-1150. But for now still bullish but looking for a bit of a pullback very soon.

My small caps for now is:
IKAN : 0.9$
CPE 2.7$ (sold 50% - holding rest)
UWBK 0.4$
OSBC: 0.9$
FORM 7$
HQS 2.8$
OXGN(New position 0.32$ - think this one is about fo fly, tremendous upside potential, looking for 0.6+)
NIV (new position 2.05$)
YMI(new position 1.45$ - breakout play for me)

So all in all a great week and more to come, lots of small caps are waking up and booming, and there is more to come. Large caps getting overbought soon, but small caps always after the big fishes, so when you see large caps running, its time to load the boat with cheap small caps like I have done this week.

Have a nice weekend and enjoy - long and strong for now !

Market view

Wow, what a day yesterday, small caps, microcaps and pennys is starting to get on fire ! Yesterday showed some strenght as expected and I'm looking for more on these ones.

I am still holding all my small caps as posted yesterday where I think UWBK have huge upside potential.

On the overall markets looks like we are in due for a pullback VERY soon , before we should move higher. But overall if numbers is better than expected then we just may POP up and go. Labour day next week and the volume should come into markets after labour day. But either way I think we go a bit higher, but not much, VIX needs to get down to lower trendline and SPX should run into some resistance. Target is still 1100+ short term, with a possible pullback today.

Long positions:
- UWBK
- CPST
- CPE
- HQS
- OSBC
- FORM
- IKAN

Have a nice day

Market view

Woow, what a day yesterday, we just exploded big time to the upside. As I told people tueday that I was looking for a big move in either direction today and I was going to close my shorts IF we broke the downtrend. And we GAPPED just above the trendline which was confirmation to cover shorts. Sold ALL my major shorts from SPX 1125 to 1065 SPX, well I know markets went down to 1040, but I thought on that time that we should break 1040 SPX. We did hold the support 3 x times and bounce big with volume, so I covered shorts and got long a lot positions. Take in mind that I think this RALLY will not take long, I think its going to be an explosive rally , but wont last long time... probably only to mid September. For now my target is 1100+ in SPX, so I am looking for a little pullback before moving higher.

I got loaded with so many small caps, because small caps momo should come soon, with the big fishes running first. Much better to get a day or two early in small caps before they go crazy !

The stocks I bought is:
- HQS
- IKAN
- CPE
- CPST
- CHP
- UWBK
- OSBC
- FORM

All of these heavy loaded where my favourites is HQS and IKAN - those 2 companys is some brilliant quality companys - which people LOVED 50% higher than current prices. Now they are even cheaper and nothing changed other than markets drifting lower. I did not load TNA, cause I think there is a lot more % upside playing small caps than TNA when markets moving up. Again you see that I have been bearish since early August and was looking for downside, which we got. I expected more downside to below 1000 SPX, but bears was not strong enough, and a good trader is not "blind sided" but can trade both up and down. I switched my view from bearish to bullish after confirmation yesterday.

Well good luck most of these small caps plays is on rock bottom for a little swing play 1-2 weeks.

Market view

Okay, we didnt get the plunge I was expecting yesterday and we are having a TRIPLE bottom 1040....unbelieveable we cant break that level. Again I'm short from 1125 SPX major, but right now I am looking for taking profits today IF the markets shows some signs of reversal , and we break the down trend line. I wanna SEE this before and IF we break the downtrend , then we have a good shot for a short term rally before we plunge back down. So today will show if I'm going to cover or just hold into my shorts, but there is a nice daily bullish divergence on MACD and if we bounce right here now, it will confirm that longer term bullish MACD divergence. The break of downtrend would be SPX 1065.

Take in mind I am still very bearish longer term, and think we go below 1000 SPX, but for now it looks like we may have a good shot to test 1080 and above if we break the downtrendline, which we are getting close to do. I need to follow the charts and what they are telling me, can just sit here and wait for markets to go down as I want them to do, but I already have a huge profit from my shorts and I could take these ones homes. If we get a bounce I am going to pick up some CRUSHED stocks for a major bounce near term.

Time will tell, you can follow me on twitter or lion

Have a nice day