Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Market view



As expected markets was bleeding yesterday all the way down. So funny, cause so many perma bulls out there calling for the bottom last friday when we had the suckers rally showing up. I still believe that markets will break 1040 short term , most likely today if bad economic data comes out, and then 1010 SPX is next target. Not sure yet if I am going to cover my shorts near 1010, but I think I will take some profits near that level and try holding rest for a bit longer term. I'm still short since 1125 SPX and already in some nice profits, but I see no reason to get bullish yet, therefore I'm holding all shorts.

My intermediate target for markets(SPX) is 942, which we could see pretty fast in September imo.
Remember, bear market rallies is always violent and pretty fast, as we saw Friday, but should be followed by another major move down.

We have a lot of economic data this week, so its going to be a very interesting week imo and should be quite volatile.

But for now my short term target in SPX is 1010 which we should see this week(Nikkei down -3.55% tonight)

Saturday, August 28, 2010

Market view



Okay, FED and Uncle Ben told us that they would do anything they can so we wont get into a recession.......but Uncle Ben you cant. He also told us that the housing bubble should recover in 08......

Markets had a very nice rally, and it hurts a bit if you are short like me, but I've been short since 1125 SPX for a major swing trade and I wont cover before we are at least right above 1000 or near 942. I think this "bull" rally we had friday is FAKE and a bulltrap, cause I hear SO many people out there calling for the bottom and everything looks like moving up now. I just dont even believe that this was the bottom. I think we go LOWER next week and it could be in a very nice collapse by monday or tuesday next week. Markets still below trendlines and all moving averages..... so there is NO reason to become bullish. And again if we get a bounce , just SHORT it....the NASI didnt even move up, internals are WEAK, and NYSI is still down, NYMO the only one which bounced a little bit...no reason to get bullish here

Early next week will be very interesting, we have a lot of economic data next week so it will be nice to see where we are going. Either way, nothing new, still short, holding short and if we get near some MA(50) , MA(200) , load the boat with shorts.

Have a nice weekend everyone !

Friday, August 27, 2010

Market view




Well as yesterday we opened green and in my target area 1060-1070, I nailed it and we reversed from that area. Last 10 minutes went UGLY in markets and huge sellers there in indexes.... now DOW is below 10.000 ! People talking about it today and we have a VERY interesting day with GDP and Bernanke. Very volatile day I think and I think we BIG NASTY move to the downside could occur. I am expecting bad numbers under 1% and probably negative numbers.... but lets see, the VIX is slowly increasing and the bulls looks very weak to push us up again.

I'm looking for a move to 1040 this morning and possible minor bounce, but I think it will crack , possible when Bernanke talking... we will see... but I think we could see 1000-1020 TODAY, so a black friday could come...

I am going to take a few profits on my shorts since 1125 SPX IF we go near 1000 level and bounce... but I am holding for the next weeks becuase I think we will go down to 942 or 872 in SPX which is fibonacci retracements.... September worst month, but maybe the start of september might be good.

Overall still SHORT, remains short.. and nothing to get me bullish here...

Thursday, August 26, 2010

Market view



Well as I told people last night was that we might get a contra trend bounce from 1040 which would move to 1060-1070. But I didnt even play the bounce I am still short and holding short here. I see no reason to get bullish, we have a lot big resistances overhead and this is just an oversold bounce. Look at the news all week, they were so bad, and I see no reason in future to get bullish short term. Holding my shorts and my target is below 1000 in SPX very soon, think we might see right above 1000 or 1020 SPX in next few days.... so be happy if we get another gap up today, thats a SHORT if we do.......dont get sucked in, only all the perma bulls out there will load up 100% and hold the bag like they did at 1125 SPX.....

GDP numbers tomorrow will be interesting..... but for now, short short short, only thing I can say. September statistical the WORST month in the year too...

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Market view




Well nothing new really , still remain short since SPX 1125 and will continue to hold my shorts until we get at least below 1000 SPX......we need a real flush in the markets over next weeks.......

But right now we have been moving down a lot for the past weeks and I think we could be able to see a little RELIEF rally. IF we gap down today on bad numbers to SPX 1030-1040 there is a great chance that we get a relief rally to around 1060-1070 before heading further down ( and to lock in some more permabulls!) ... I will still continue to be net short because NO reasons to get real bullish these markets, but I will try playing the counter trend rally with some TNA if we get the real wash out very soon. But overall intermediate trend I am looking for 942 in SPX which is my target to cover my shorts since 1125 SPX.

So nothing new, staying heavy short and will continue , more selling ahead, GDP numbers friday and initial claims tomorrow. Durable orders today...... nothing to get bullish about.

Have a nice day

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Market view



Well as expected we might get a green monday cause no economic news, and we did start green, but it was a clear SELL on mutual fund mondays and added to my shorts at 1080 SPX. I'm going to mind you that I am still heavy net short from SPX 1125 and wont cover for now, I am very bearish the markets and think we have a lot more downside to come. The only thing right now is that stochatsics getting oversold on daily chart, but this can be here for weeks ahead... and the flood gates can be opened soon for the bears.

There is a POSSIBILITY markets will go up to touch the blue trendline , but I think the minor wave 2 is finnished monday and a likely collapse comming. We have a lot economic numbers this week which will be very interesting imo and I think we plunge to the downside. Next target is 1040-1055 area, where we could get a bounce, but then break this one again and then a move to 1020's in SPX and below neckline would come. You remember in start of August I talked about markets where about to roll over and my target was SPX under 1000 ? Not many thought this, but for now it looks like a possibility... and I still believe we will head below 1000. My personal target for SPX intermediate term is 942...

Well we will see

Have a nice day !

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Market view



Well what a nice week if you have been shorting the markets, been lots of profits to make here. Remember always to take some profits off the table , I did that, but I am still heavy short since 1125-1130 and think we are only in the beginning of a huge move down.

I see NO reason to buy this markets, only if you are a scalper or daytrader you can make money going long, but holding long for a swing trade is death. Im stil very bearish and think we move a lot lower next week as we have GDP numbers comming out and house numbers. On monday we have no economic data , so that MIGHT be the only green day , if we are able to get green, but thats just another shorting opportunity. If we get a green monday they may take us to 1080 SPX. Im still holding major shorts and wont cover the major ones before we are below 1000 SPX which I can see very soon, early September.

Weekly charts looks very bearish too and looks like we are heading way down. The big support we get IF we break 1000 in SPX is near 875-950 area, so watch that.

Have a nice weekend

Friday, August 20, 2010

Market view




What a brilliant day yesterday, I'm still holding my shorts TZA from under 34 cause I dont really see any things out there to get bullish these markets. VIX brokeout and is going to get the big breakout above 28 and 30, then fear will come into markets. But FED might hold the markets up a bit today cause of OPEX(possible rebound to 1083 area), but I think next week will be a VERY bad week , why I am holding all my shorts. We are going to get some very small dead cat bounces, but all these bounces should be shorted imo. I'm thikning we are going lower than 1000 in SPX sometimes in early September, so watch out, the necklines will be broken and we are heading further down.

All in all nothing new , I'm keeping my shorts.

Have a nice day

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Market view






BULLS !! Where are you gone ??? After we had a big drop from 1130 level bulls havent been able to make a really nice rally, only for 1 day this week, but the last days have been terrible for the bulls after such a big drop, telling me that they cant push us much higher. We are at resistance 1100 and gets rejected at MA(200) CLASSIC type of reversal in a bear market.......surprise surprise. I believe we are VERY near another short term top, but still believe that 1130 level was the top for a long time. I think the maximum upside potential IF we move higher is 1107, which is the downtrendline from highs and 61.1% fib retracement. So lots of resistances here, but I feel that today we could make another doji or reversal candle and then a possible market crash is looming. I'm thinking we will get a really ugly move, a likely CRASH very soon , and we have OPEX on friday, so they may MANIPULATE markets around this level until friday. Next week we have GDP numbers 27. august which should be a trigger to crash the markets, so next week WONT be bull friendly. I loaded up a good chunck of TZA under 34 in 33.8, which I'm very happy for. I dont believe markets is able to move a lot higher and IF they are.... well just gotta wait 1 or 2 more days and then we crash and burn.

There is absolutley nothing here to be bullish about other than the permabulls.

Have a nice day !

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Market view




Perfect day yesterday , as I expected we got a relief rally with the dollar pulling back and the target was 1100 SPX. I pretty much NAILED that target and sold all my TNA from the 34's to 38's and got into TZA 34. Will add this one IF it moves lower, but for me it looks like we got out contra trend rally and next move down is comming. But take in mind that we have OPEX on friday and markets USUALLY moves up until OPEX, last time we had OPEX we sold off very hard on OPEX day friday, but I think the real melt down will come next week and I believe IF we get a crash that will begin near 27. august as GDP numbers comming out which I expect to be so weak and huge meltdown or hindenburg omen comming. Thats why I love to add more shorts IF we move any higher, we have a trendline resistance at 1107 , but for now looks like 1100 was the top. For this week expect choppy trading sessions over next days into friday if not the bias is to the downside from here. IF we trade above 1100 sell the strenght and buy some shorts imo, this economy is screwed and a big meltdown is comming.

Target to the downside is below 1000 in SPX so we have a lot downside to come in September imo. I'm long TZA cause I think small caps going down hard when markets going down, all the small companies over last 10 years came because the people were FED and spend a lot of money, but reality today is that people needs to save more and they do, so lots of small companies will go away in the future. And the big companys which is too big to fail is not too big to bail....FED is out of bullets. Kyle Bass interesting interview yesterday on CNBC , he predicted the housing crash and he said yesterday that he could not understand who dare to buy stocks at this time. What has changed since 2 years ago ? Really nothing other than its getting worse with a lot more debt, debt debt !


Have a nice day everyone !

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Market view

Well not much to say other than I loaded up on TNA and sold more FAZ 15.65 at the opening monday as it looks like we filled the gap. My short term target is around 1100 SPX over next few days where I am going to add to my short position again. After markets been slammed down , it has been consolidated for few days now ready to move higher imo.

But if you are a longer term investor I would just hold my shorts because markets WILL go down a lot more over next weeks/months.

Short term rally to 1100 SPX, then down under 1000 SPX.

Have a nice day

Saturday, August 14, 2010

Market view




Well , what a GREAT week if you were short ! Huge gains on our shorts and I continue to be net short, but taken a little profits end of this week. As I see it right now I think there is a great possibility of a gap down monday and then rally. I am looking for SPX to 1056-1072 level before a possible contra trend rally to SPX 1100. The dollar been running since I got long and thats also why markets been moving down. I expect the dollar to have a short term pullback with markets going up soon. Longer term still VERY bearish and think we have a NASTY leg down to 800-1000 SPX in next months, but with small dead cat bounces.

On weekly chart we made a bearish engulfing and bullish engulfing in the VIX, so there is a lot more to come to the downside in the markets. MACD rolling over again too...
Hope you still enjoy my blog , have a nice weekend !

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Market view




Wooow what an AMAZING and FAZtastic day we had. Markets down huge as I expected and all bear ETF's skyrocket!

VIX made the nice breakout which I told about and we got bullish MACD cross and RSI above 50 which I talked about yesterday, with nearly all bear ETF's up 10%. Take in mind that this is just warming up for a huge leg down which would take us below SPX 1000. What I ultimately think is, the perma bulls will try to feed us and buy the dips so we might have a dead cat bounce either at the neckline in the big hs pattern or 1060-1070 area SPX. But its just another opportunity to add more shorts. Well I'm heavy short since SPX 1125-1130 level and I am holding these major shorts for SPX below 1000. So for now the charts looks VERY ugly on daily chart and we are heading way lower, I dont know if we are going to see a crash like 2 years ago, but we will see a lot downside, thats for sure. The dollar which I predicted and got long friday last week is moving nicely up and euro down.

Today we dont have a lot economic news and therefore I expect for today probably a gap down and then a relief rally, but for tomorrow we have a lot numbers like EU GDP numbers and retail sales and so. I think friday will be another red day like we had yesterday, so for today, IF we bounce, short it ! NO reasons out there both technical and fundamental to BUY this markets. Only PERMABULLS out there getting screwed thinking we go higher, screw them, they really need to learn better. Its really hard to predict the movements in markets VERY short term, but for the intermediate term we go down. Yesterdays afterhours tanked to SPX near 1076 and if I could I would buy it for a bounce play.....I think we have a good chance to get a bounce near 1100 level from this area and then tank further.

Hope you still enjoy this blog and if you have some time please rate it at investimonials.com

Have a nice day!

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Market view




Well as expected last days we made a major top and for now looks like we are still in a topping process. I need to remind you that in a TOP and in a BOTTOM markets ALWAYS is very VOLATILE.....We have seen the markets very volatile up and down last days which indicates for me this is a top in this area and why I am heavy short markets from Friday and monday. FED have NO more bullets left to help this markets and the dollar continues to rally. I'm long dollar since friday and think its about to rally big today. I think markets going to have a FAT RED day today, august 11. cause on all my bear ETF's we are going to have a positive bullish MACD cross (DRV, EDZ, TZA, FAZ) and that usually means 10% pop in those ones. So today could be a -3% today and I think we will break down of the rising wedge. I think this leg down will be a NASTY leg which should be more ugly than the leg down from april high to july low. We could easy get a "flash crash II" which could last for days instead of only 1 day and I think we have a good shot for moving below 1000 SPX soon and in the 800-1000 level which is my target for now. I wont buy ANY dips but there will be a lot of people here who will buy all the dips, but will bail out on all the gap downs overnight.

Stochastics , MACD and RSI in the BEAR ETF's giving buy signal today , Nikkei down 3% , euro down and we have some economic numbers which is trade balance today which should be UGLY for markets too. All in all like I said before, dont try to pick "winners in a bad market" you will get raped and loose. I'm short and staying short here.

Good luck to all ! Hope you enjoy my blog !

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Market view




Well I were 1 day early trying to call the major top on friday and we got a very WEAK rally on monday with very low volume. There was no economic data and often when we dont have any data , we get a rally. As seen on the charts we are in a very bearish chart pattern rising wedge and I think we will breakdown and plunge very fast from this pattern very soon. Its hard to say exactly when, but I bet today on FED des. we will plunge and start next leg down. IF we should rally up the upside is only 1130-1150 and not expecting ANY higher than this. The downside is 800-1000 in SPX which is big, so I am shorting markets here and if we move up more I will add. At the moment I'm about 80% short and 20% cash cause I added FAZ in lower 13's yesterday.

VIX telling us a very big move is comming soon and I expect VIX to breakout to the upside with positive MACD cross. But for now I am very bearish markets and think we are able to get a nice plunge over next days/weeks/months...........

Be careful going long, dont fight the trend. I've learned in the past that NOT try to pick a winner in a down market. (I know markets short term trend is up) but I get so many signals telling us we go lower. Also the dollar bottomed which I got long friday so when dollar is moving up, markets most likely moving down. Everything pointing to lower markets really and the QE2 will be a disaster for markets. DOW jones hit my upterm target of 10.720 so I dont expect it to make a new high for now. If you believe in astro or gann, we have a new moon today 10. august and a MAJOR Gann turning point..just to say it..The very short term targets in SPX is 1000-1050 area which is likely this week if a plunge starting....



Have a nice day

Friday, August 6, 2010

Intraday market view alert




Okay, I took all my long positions off the table and got into shorts 50%. Holding rest cash. We broke very IMPORTANT trendline on the DOW Jones index and I think the rally from july lows is over. Next level in markets is under 1000 SPX, so for now happy to short markets here. We made a hanging man candlestick which most likely is a reversal bar. I expect some downside to start already monday with a confirmation of trend down.

Looking for a lot downside over next weeks/months into october. Will update charts before monday when I come home from holiday.



The Fed’s actions are of course game changers and the announcement of QE2 could potentially kick off yet another rally on top of this one started early July. However, if QE 2 is NOT announced, then stocks will have completed a bearish pattern, become overbought, and be ripe for the collapse to 1,010 (at the minimum) that the rising wedge is predicting on the S&P 500.

I cannot pretend to know what the Fed will do, but given the approaching election and the political backlash additional monetization would cause, the announcement of QE 2 seems unlikely at this point.

After all, the Fed has clearly stated that it views the stock market as the key gauge for economic health in the US. As I write this, stocks are only 8% off their one year high. If the Fed cannot stomach an 8% slide in stocks after a 60 % rally over the course of 13 months, then the financial world is in major and I mean MAJOR trouble.

Indeed, for the Fed to announce QE 2 now would signal not only that QE 1 failed, but that they have lost control of the markets and we are heading for a time of high systemic risk even greater than Autumn 2008.

Remember, the only thing propping the market up from March 2009 onward was the view that the Fed could pull us from the brink.

For the Fed to announce QE 2 now, when the market is still 68% up from the March 2009 lows, would destroy any faith the financial world has in the Fed (personally I never had any faith at all, but that’s a different story). This in turn would mean the market breaking to levels that would make 1,010 on the S&P 500 look absolutely heavenly… or the Dollar imploding, pushing the market higher in nominal terms, but at the cost of a dramatic collapse in the real purchasing power of stocks.

So I think the odds favor no announcement of QE 2 on Tuesday and “the next leg down” beginning for stocks around that time. At least that’s the roadmap I’m following right now.



Have a nice day!

Market view

Right now I am just enjoying my vacation in Greece. Lovely sun here and sitting on a bar with a beer, thats fantastic !

For now markets been moving sideways for several days, and I think we are consolidating before another move up before FED meeting next week. Think we have a good chance for sqwiiize the last shorts out, and make the bullish sentiment very high again before another top is in. What I expect from this level is a move to SPX 1130-1150 and thats the point where I am going to collect a lot of shorts. I am very confident that we wont get another high this year and for me it looks like we get last breakout either today or early next week. But I will remind you that I already started adding very few shorts just in case.....but if markets goes to 1130-1150 level I am going to add more on the way up. JTX was a very bad trade for me and down a lot on it, IBCP still holding and they had some great earnings, so it might be a big runner today - watching it. Got in some RNN cause of very sweet technical chart and a big move is comming here. Bios been hot and if markets going a bit higher RNN could do a big move to the upside. OXGN still holding this puppy and waiting for it to breakout with other bios.

Short term, bullish , but longer term very bearish. We are going up on light volume and when we go down it can go pretty fast.

Have a nice day, will go out to the beach now !

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Market update

Okay, as I've said I am on vacation for this week, so I am only going to make some comments for the markets.

As I see it now, we hit some support trendline on friday, which holded the key level and bounced from support. On monday we saw a very nice big rally from these levels and the upside target could be 1133-1150 on SPX. Dow jones seems very near topped, so I am going to be prepared to load up a lot shorts if SPX runs in 1133-1150 area.

Always good to start adding few shorts on the way up and then add a lot when we get a clear signal.

We could be in some kind of topping process at the moment.

Have a nice day , going off to the beach !